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作者：Khalil, Makram; Strobel, Felix
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：We show that the US dollar response to trade policy uncertainty (TPU) is key to assessing the impact of US trade policy. Employing structural vector autoregressive models, we find that TPU shocks supported a multilateral USD appreciation during the 2018-19 trade tensions between the US and some of its major trading partners. We rationalize this in a two-country New Keynesian model with financial frictions that links the increase in TPU to rising demand for safe USD assets. Our findings suggest...
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作者：Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Warwick
摘要：We examine the impact of commodity price changes on the business cycles and capital flows in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), distinguishing between their role as a source of shock and as a channel of transmission of global shocks. Our findings reveal that surges in export prices, triggered by commodity price shocks, boost domestic GDP, an effect further amplified by the endogenous decline of country spreads. However, the effects on capital flows appear muted. Shifts in U.S. ...
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作者：Biljanovska, Nina; Vardoulakis, Alexandros P.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We introduce heterogeneity between workers and entrepreneurs in a standard Fisherian model to study Sudden Stop dynamics and optimal policy. The distinction between workers and entrepreneurs introduces a redistributive motive that meaningfully interacts with Fisherian deflation. While in tranquil times redistribution is driven by the relative marginal utilities of consumption, the planner additionally favors entrepreneurs during Sudden Stops to mitigate Fisherian deflation. We show how heterog...
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作者：Forge, Fabien; Garred, Jason; Kwon, Kyae Lim
作者单位：University of Ottawa
摘要：Poor countries export a remarkably narrow range of products. To what extent have trade preferences targeted to the least developed countries (LDCs) changed this situation? We study a large set of recent reforms to the LDC trade preferences offered by OECD countries. Leveraging trade policy variation by importer, exporter, product and year, we show that tariff reductions have increased the prevalence of positive trade flows. However, new flows have been far more likely to emerge in cases with p...
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作者：Foellmi, Reto; Hepenstrick, Christian; Torun, David
作者单位：University of St Gallen; Swiss National Bank (SNB); University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Estimating trade costs is key to understanding the welfare effects of trade liberalizations. Cost minimization implies that the triangle inequality (TI) of international trade costs must hold for any three countries to avoid cross-border arbitrage. We show that re-routing opportunities might arise when trade costs change because a shipment through an intermediary becomes cheaper. The TI captures such re-routing opportunities. However, standard approaches to calculating the gains from trade lib...
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作者：Avila-Montealegre, Oscar; Mix, Carter
作者单位：Banco de la Republica Colombia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Bilateral trade is considered a key driver of business-cycle transmission, as countries with higher bilateral trade have more correlated business cycles. We show, however, that when we account for the common trade exposure of a country pair to similar foreign cycles, the effect of bilateral trade on comovement falls sharply. Furthermore, common trade exposure is also a robust predictor of comovement. We conclude that trade is indeed a driver of business-cycle transmission, but often through co...
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作者：Yang, Han
作者单位：Academia Sinica - Taiwan
摘要：I present a dynamic trade model spanning many countries to explore the transitional paths of trade-induced inequality. By incorporating capital-skill complementarity, human capital accumulation, and capital accumulation, this paper examines the exact transitional path following a shift from autarky to trade. It reveals that trade increases the skill premium, skill share, and real wages for both skilled and unskilled workers in the majority of countries at the steady state. However, the short-t...
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作者：Chaumont, Gaston; Gordon, Grey; Sultanum, Bruno; Tobin, Elliot
作者单位：University of Rochester; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Harvard University
摘要：How do credit default swaps (CDS) affect sovereign debt markets? We analyze how liquidity, exposure to default risk, and regulation affect the answer to this question using a sovereign debt model where investors trade bonds and CDS over the counter via directed search. Restricting portfolios can improve bond prices and bond -market activity, but the net effect depends on relative frictions in bond and CDS markets, the exposure of investors, and how the sovereign responds to the policy. Our nov...
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作者：Acharya, Viral V.; Rajan, Raghuram G.; Shim, Jack B.
作者单位：New York University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：We examine how a sovereign's ability to borrow abroad affects the country's growth and steady-state consumption when the government is both myopic and self -interested. Surprisingly, government myopia can increase a country's access to external borrowing and extend the government's effective horizon, giving it a stake in incentivizing private production and savings despite its self-interest. In a high -saving country, the lengthening of the government's effective horizon can incentivize it to ...
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作者：Diewert, W. Erwin
作者单位：University of British Columbia
摘要：Feenstra and Weinstein introduced a special case of the translog cost function, the Symmetric Translog (ST) Cost Function, which replaced all of the second order parameters which are present in the Translog functional form by a single positive parameter. The ST functional form is useful in the context of estimating consumer preferences over related products and provides an alternative to the use of Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) preferences in this context. The ST functional form ha...
