Skewed Idiosyncratic Income Risk over the Business Cycle: Sources and Insurances

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Busch, Christopher; Domeij, David; Guvenen, Fatih; Madera, Rocio
• 署名单位: University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Stockholm School of Economics; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Southern Methodist University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190019
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 207-242
• 关键词: dynamics

摘要

We provide new evidence on business cycle fluctuations in skewed labor income risk in the United States, Germany, Sweden, and France. We document four results. First, in all countries, the skewness of individual income growth is strongly procyclical, whereas its variance is flat and acyclical. Second, this result also holds for continuously employed, full-time workers, indicating that the hours margin is not the main driver; additional analyses of hours and wages confirm that both margins are important. Third, within -household smoothing does not seem effective at mitigating skewness fluctuations. Fourth, tax-and-transfer policies blunt some of the largest declines in incomes, reducing procyclical fluctuations in skewness.