Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Andrade, Philippe; Gaballo, Gaetano; Mengus, Eric; Mojon, Benoit
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; European Central Bank; Bank of France; Paris School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180141
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 1-29
• 关键词: monetary-policy; INFORMATION; prices

摘要

Central banks' announcements that rates are expected to remain low could signal either a weak macroeconomic outlook, which would slow expenditures, or a more accommodative stance, which may stimulate economic activity. We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters to show that, when the Fed gave guidance between 2011:III and 2012:IV, these two interpretations coexisted despite a consensus on low expected rates. We rationalize these facts in a New-Keynesian model where heterogeneous beliefs introduce a trade-off in forward guidance policy: leveraging on the optimism of those who believe in monetary easing comes at the cost of inducing excess pessimism in non-believers.