American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

最新文章

• Learning in a Medium-Scale DSGE Model with Expectations Based on Small Forecasting Models AI翻译
  作者：Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, Raf
  作者单位：Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Universite Catholique Louvain; European Central Bank; National Bank of Belgium
  摘要：This paper evaluates the empirical performance of a medium-scale DSGE model with agents forming expectations using small forecasting models updated by the Kalman filter. The adaptive learning model fits the data better than the rational expectations (RE) model. Beliefs about the inflation persistence explain the observed decline in the mean and the volatility of inflation as well as Phillips curve flattening. Learning about inflation results in lower estimates for the persistence of the exogen...
• Firm Heterogeneity and the Long-run Effects of Dividend Tax Reform AI翻译
  作者：Gourio, Francois; Miao, Jianjun
  作者单位：Boston University; Zhongnan University of Economics & Law
  摘要：To study the long-run effect of dividend taxation on aggregate capital accumulation, we build a dynamic general equilibrium model in which there is a continuum of firms subject to idiosyncratic productivity shocks. We find that a dividend tax cut raises aggregate productivity by reducing the frictions in the reallocation of capital across firms. Our baseline model simulations show that when both dividend and capital gains tax rates are cut from 25 and 20 percent, respectively, to the same 15 p...
• New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis AI翻译
  作者：Chari, V. V.; Kehoe, Patrick J.; McGrattan, Ellen R.
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
  摘要：Macroeconomists have largely converged on method, model design, reduced-form shocks, and principles of policy advice. Our main disagreements today are about implementing the methodology. Some think New Keynesian models are ready to be used for quarter-to-quarter quantitative policy advice. We do not. Focusing on the state-of-the-art version of these models, we argue that some of its shocks and other features are not structural or consistent with microeconomic evidence. Since an accurate struct...
• What Caused the US Pandemic-Era Inflation? AI翻译
  作者：Bernanke, Ben; Blanchard, Olivier
  作者单位：Brookings Institution; Peterson Institute for International Economics
  摘要：We estimate a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations that allows us to analyze and quantify the sources of recent US inflation. We find that, contrary to early concerns that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets, most of the inflation surge resulted from shocks to prices given wages. Although tight labor markets have, thus far, not been the primary driver of inflation, we find that they have a relatively more persistent effect ...
• How to Construct Nationally Representative Firm-Level Data from the Orbis Global Database: New Facts on SMEs and Aggregate Implications for Industry Concentrations AI翻译
  作者：Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Sorensen, Bent E.; Villegas-Sanchez, Carolina; Volosovych, Vadym; Yesiltas, Sevcan
  作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; University of Houston System; University of Houston; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Universitat Ramon Llull; Escuela Superior de Administracion y Direccion de Empresas (ESADE); Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Koc University
  摘要：We construct nationally representative firm -level longitudinal data for European countries using financial statements from the Orbis database. We validate our data by comparing its coverage and firm size distribution to official statistics. We showcase two applications to show the importance of firm representativeness in understanding macroeconomic outcomes. First , we show that small and medium-sized firms account for a large share of aggregate economic activity. Second , we document that fi...
• Information Dynamics and Macro Fluctuations AI翻译
  作者：Chousakos, Kyriakos; Gorton, Gary; Ordonez, Guillermo
  作者单位：Bank of America Corporation; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania
  摘要：The amount of information produced about firms' productivities and about the quality of collateral backing their loans varies over time. These information dynamics determine the evolution of credit, out-put and productivity, which feeds back into incentives to produce information. We characterize this intricate dynamic relation. A credit boom happens when information about collateral depreciates. A financial crisis happens when information about collateral is sud-denly generated. Information a...
• Consumption Heterogeneity: Micro Drivers and Macro Implications AI翻译
  作者：Crawley, Edmund; Kuchler, Andreas
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
  摘要：We document heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) across household characteristics relevant to understanding heterogeneous agent models and monetary policy transmission. We find a strong negative relationship between household liquid wealth and MPC. We show that household liquid wealth predicts MPC closely for every other household characteristic we look at. We use a new empirical method that overcomes sources of bias found in the existing literature, along with administrat...
• Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premiumt AI翻译
  作者：Hatchondo, Juan Carlos; Martinez, Leonardo; Roch, Francisco
  作者单位：International Monetary Fund
  摘要：We study fiscal rules using a sovereign default model. A debt-brake (spread-brake) rule imposes a ceiling on the fiscal deficit when the sovereign debt (spread) is above a threshold. For our benchmark cali-bration, similar gains can be achieved with the optimal debt or spread brake. However, for a Union of heterogeneous economies, a com-mon spread brake generates larger gains than a common debt brake. Furthermore, gains from abandoning a common debt brake may be significant for economies that ...
• The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk AI翻译
  作者：Adrian, Tobias; Grinberg, Federico; Liang, Nellie; Malik, Sheheryar; Yu, Jie
  作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Columbia University
  摘要：We show that the conditional distribution of forecasted GDP growth depends on financial conditions in a panel of 11 advanced economies. Financial conditions have a larger effect on the lower fifth percentile of conditional growth which we call growth-at-risk (GaR) than the median. In addition, the term structure of GaR reflects that when initial financial conditions are loose, downside risks are lower in the near term but increase in later quarters. This intertemporal tradeoff for loose financ...
• Declining Worker Turnover: The Role of Short-Duration Employment Spells AI翻译
  作者：Pries, Michael J.; Rogerson, Richard
  作者单位：University of Notre Dame; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：Using the Quarterly Workforce Indicators database, we document that a significant amount of the decline in labor market turnover during the last two decades is accounted for by the decline in employment spells that last just one or two quarters. This phenomenon is pervasive: short-term employment spells have declined across industries, firm size categories, demographic groups, and geographic regions. Using a search-and-matching model in the Diamond-MortensenPissarides tradition that incorporat...