Macroeconomic Frameworks: Reconciling Evidence and Model Predictions from Demand Shocks

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Auerbach, Alan J.; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Murphy, Daniel
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Virginia
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210033
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 190-229
• 关键词: Fiscal stimulus; LABOR; cyclicality; multipliers; INVESTMENT; spillovers; capacity; returns; POLICY; TRADE

摘要

How do demand shocks affect the economy? We exploit detailed data on US defense spending to examine a large set of outcome variables in response to well-identified local demand shocks, jointly exam-ining new outcomes (e.g., firm entry and housing rents) and other key macroeconomic outcomes and elasticities that previously have been estimated separately or in settings with weaker identification.We find that government spending crowds in employment, firm entry,private consumption, and labor productivity while also increasing local housing rents. To reconcile the evidence with theory, we study a model of economic slack.(JEL E12, E21, E24, E25, H56, L11, R31)