The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bacchetta, Philippe; van Wincoop, Eric
• 署名单位: University of Lausanne; University of Virginia
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20140092
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 177-198
• 关键词: liquidity trap; Financial crisis; POLICY; RISK; fluctuations; expectations; MARKETS; banks; slump; crash

摘要

While the 2008-2009 financial crisis originated in the United States, output, consumption, and investment declined by similar magnitudes around the globe. Given the partial integration of both goods and financial markets, what can account for the remarkable global business cycle synchronicity during this period? To address this question, we develop a -two-country model allowing for self-fulfilling business cycle panics. We show that a business cycle panic will necessarily be synchronized across countries as long as there is a minimum level of economic integration. Several factors, including tight credit, made the global economy particularly vulnerable to a global panic in 2008.