Fisher Dynamics in US Household Debt, 1929-2011

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mason, J. W.; Jayadev, Arjun
• 署名单位: Roosevelt University; University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Boston; Azim Premji Foundation; Azim Premji University Bengaluru
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.6.3.214
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 214-234
• 关键词: demand; credit

摘要

The evolution of debt-income ratios over time depends on income growth, inflation, and interest rates, independent of any changes in borrowing. We examine the effect of these Fisher dynamics on household debt-income ratios in the United States over the period 1929-2011. Adapting a standard decomposition of public debt to household sector debt, we show that these factors explain, in accounting terms, a large fraction of the changes in household debt-income ratios observed historically. More recently, debt defaults have also been important. Changes in household debt-income ratios over time cannot be straightforwardly interpreted as reflecting shifts in the supply and demand of household credit. (JEL D14, E21, E31, E43, H63, N32)