Investment Hangover and the Great Recession

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Rognlie, Matthew; Shleifer, Andrei; Simsek, Alp
• 署名单位: Northwestern University; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20160211
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 113-153
• 关键词: monetary-policy; liquidity trap; sectoral shifts; BUSINESS; long; acceleration; consumption; COMMITMENT; PRINCIPLE; demand

摘要

We present a model of investment hangover motivated by the Great Recession. Overbuilding of durable capital such as housing requires a reallocation of productive resources to other sectors, which is facilitated by a reduction in the interest rate. When monetary policy is constrained, overbuilding induces a demand-driven recession with limited reallocation and low output. Investment in other capital initially declines due to low demand, but it later booms and induces an asymmetric recovery in which the overbuilt sector is left behind. Welfare can be improved by ex post policies that stimulate investment (including in overbuilt capital) and ex ante policies that restrict investment.