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作者：Becker, Sascha O.; Hornung, Erik; Woessmann, Ludger
作者单位：University of Warwick; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich
摘要：Research increasingly stresses the role of human capital in modern economic development. Existing historical evidence-mostly from British textile industries-however, rejects that formal education was important for the Industrial Revolution. Our new evidence from technological follower Prussia uses a unique school enrollment and factory employment database linking 334 counties from pre-industrial 1816 to two industrial phases in 1849 and 1882. Using pre-industrial education as instrument for la...
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作者：Rodriguez-Clare, Andres
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper proposes a Ricardian model to understand the short-run and long-run aggregate effects of increased fragmentation and off shoring on rich and poor countries. The short-run analysis shows that, when offshoring is sufficiently high, further increases in offshoring benefit the poor country and hurt the rich country. But these effects may be reversed in the long run as countries adjust their research efforts in response to increased offshoring. In particular, in the long run, the rich co...
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作者：Evans, George W.; Gibbs, Christopher G.; Mcgough, Bruce
作者单位：University of Oregon; University of St Andrews; University of Sydney
摘要：We propose a model of boundedly rational and heterogeneous expectations that unifies adaptive learning, k-level reasoning, and replicator dynamics. Level-0 forecasts evolve over time via adaptive learning. Agents revise over time their depth of reasoning in response to forecast errors, observed and counterfactual. The unified model makes sharp predictions for when and how quickly markets converge in Learning-to-Forecast Experiments, including novel predictions for individual and market behavio...
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作者：Toews, Gerhard; Vezina, Pierre-louis
作者单位：New Economic School; University of London; King's College London
摘要：The Soviet regime forcedly sent millions of enemies of the people, i.e. the educated elite considered a threat to the regime, to Gulag camps across the USSR. We use this large-scale episode of terror as a natural experiment to provide evidence on the long-run persistence of human capital across generations and its effect on economic growth. We combine archive data from the Gulag with the 2018 Russian firm census to show that areas around camps with a larger share of enemies among camp prisoner...
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作者：Mikosch, Heiner; Roth, Christopher; Sarferaz, Samad; Wohlfart, Johannes
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Max Planck Society; University of Cologne; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Cologne
摘要：We leverage the small open economy Switzerland as a testing ground for basic premises of macroeconomic models of endogenous information acquisition, using tailored surveys of firms and households. Firms and households perceiving a greater exposure to exchange rate fluctuations acquire more information about the exchange rate. Moreover, higher perceived costs of acquiring or processing information are associated with lower levels of information acquisition. Finally, an exogenous increase in the...
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作者：Melcangi, Davide
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：Can the macroeconomic effects of credit supply shocks be large even when a small share of firms is credit constrained? I use UK firm -level accounting data to discipline a heterogeneous -firm model where the interaction between real and financial frictions induces precautionary cash holdings. In the data, firms increased their cash ratios during the Great Recession, and cash -intensive firms displayed higher employment growth. A tightening of firms'credit conditions generates the same dynamics...
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作者：Micco, Alejandro; Munoz, Pablo
作者单位：Universidad de Chile; Universidad de Chile; Getulio Vargas Foundation
摘要：We study the impact of a reform that extended employment protection to temporary agency workers. Using a difference -in -difference research design, we show that plants more exposed to the regulation experienced a decrease in revenues and total employment, and that the latter effect was attenuated in industries with high elasticity of substitution between agency and nonagency workers. We also find that labor misallocation increased as a consequence of the regulation. A model of labor demand in...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Akcigit, Ufuk; Celik, Murat Alp
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Chicago; University of Toronto
摘要：We investigate the determinants of radical (creative) innovations that break new ground in knowledge creation. We develop a model focusing on the choice between incremental and radical innovation and on how managers of different ages and human capital are sorted across firms. Firm- and patent-level evidence reveals that firms that are more open to disruption are significantly more likely to engage in radical innovation and hire younger managers and inventors with a comparative advantage in rad...
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作者：Davis, J. Scott; Devereux, Michael B.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; University of British Columbia
摘要：Capital controls may be justified as a policy to combat a financial crisis. But for large economies, capital controls may have substantial spillovers to the rest of the world. We investigate the case for capi-tal controls in a large open economy, when domestic financial con-straints may bind during a crisis. When the crisis country is indebted, it must trade off the desire to tax inflows to improve the terms of trade and tax outflows to ease financial constraints. This trade-off renders noncoo...
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作者：Kohn, David; Leibovici, Fernando; Tretvoll, Hakon
作者单位：Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Statistics Norway; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：This paper studies the role of differences in the patterns of production and international trade on the business cycle volatility of emerging and developed economies. We study a multisector small open economy in which firms produce and trade commodities and manufactures. We estimate the model to match key-cross-sectional and time-series differences across countries. Emerging economies run trade surpluses in commodities and trade deficits in manufactures, while sectoral trade flows are balanced...
