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作者：Datta, Deepa D.; Johannsen, Benjamin K.; Kwon, Hannah; Vigfusson, Robert J.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：From late 2008 to 2014, oil and equity returns were more positively correlated than in other periods. In addition, we show that both oil and equity returns became more responsive to macroeconomic news. We provide empirical evidence that these changes resulted from the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates, consistent with the theoretical predictions of a model that includes the ZLB. Although the ZLB alters the economic environment in theory, supportive empirical evidence has been la...
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作者：Dvorkin, Maximiliano A.; Yurdagul, Emircan; Sanchez, Juan M.; Sapriza, Horacio
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
摘要：Sovereign debt crises involve debt restructurings characterized by a mix of face value haircuts and maturity extensions. The prevalence of maturity extensions has been hard to reconcile with economic theory. We develop a model of endogenous debt restructuring that captures key facts of sovereign debt and restructuring episodes. While debt dilution pushes for negative maturity extensions, three factors are important in overcoming the effects of dilution and generating maturity extensions upon r...
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作者：Wu, Chunzan; Krueger, Dirk
作者单位：Peking University; University of Pennsylvania; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Tilburg University
摘要：We show that a calibrated life cycle two-earner household model with endogenous labor supply can rationalize the extent of consumption insurance against shocks to male and female wages, as estimated empirically by Blundell, Pistaferri, and Saporta-Eksten (2016) in US data. In the model, 35 percent of male and 18 percent of female permanent wage shocks pass through to consumption, compared to the empirical estimates of 32 percent and 19 percent. Most of the consumption insurance against permane...
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作者：Howard, Greg
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：What is the role of migration in regional evolutions? I document that within-US migration causes a reduction in the unemployment rate of the receiving city over several years. To establish this causal effect, I construct an instrument using out-migration of other places and predict its destination from historical patterns. The decline in unemployment is due to housing. Housing is durable, so increased demand causes a surge of new houses and construction jobs. Additionally, migrants' housing de...
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作者：Benigno, Pierpaolo
作者单位：Luiss Guido Carli University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper develops a theory in which the central bank can control the price level without fiscal backing. It is shown that the remittances policy and the balance sheet of the central bank are important elements to specify. A central bank that is appropriately capitalized can succeed in controlling prices by setting the interest rate on reserves, holding short-term assets, and rebating its income to the treasury from which it has to maintain financial independence.
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作者：Chen, Chaoran
作者单位：National University of Singapore
摘要：The prevalence of untitled land in poor countries helps explain the international agricultural productivity differences. Since untitled land cannot be traded across farmers, it creates land misallocation and distorts individuals' occupational choice between farming and working outside agriculture. I build a two-sector general equilibrium model to quantify the impact of untitled land. I find that economies with higher percentages of untitled land would have lower agricultural productivity; land...
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作者：Fostel, Ana; Geanakoplos, John
作者单位：University of Virginia; Yale University; The Santa Fe Institute
摘要：Financial innovations that change how promises are collateralized affect prices and investment, even in the absence of any change in fundamentals. In C-models, the ability to leverage an asset always generates overinvestment compared to Arrow-Debreu. Credit Default Swaps always leads to underinvestment with respect to Arrow-Debreu, and in some cases even robustly destroy competitive equilibrium. The need for collateral would seem to cause underinvestment. Our analysis illustrates a countervail...
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作者：Moro, Alessio
作者单位：University of Cagliari
摘要：I construct a two-sector general equilibrium model of structural change to study the impact of sectoral composition of gross domestic product (GDP)on cross-country differences in GDP growth and volatility. For an empirically relevant parametrization of sectoral production functions, an increase in the share of services in GDP reduces both aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) growth and volatility, thus reducing GDP growth and volatility. When the model is calibrated to the US manufacturin...
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作者：Christiano, Lawrence J.; Eichenbaum, Martin S.; Trabandt, Mathias
作者单位：Northwestern University; Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：We argue that the vast bulk of movements in aggregate real economic activity during the Great Recession were due to financial frictions. We reach this conclusion by looking through the lens of an estimated New Keynesian model in which firms face moderate degrees of price rigidities, no nominal rigidities in wages, and a binding zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate. Our model does a good job of accounting for the joint behavior of labor and goods markets, as well as inflatio...
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作者：Auray, Stephane; Eyquem, Aurelien
作者单位：Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information (ENSAI); Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information (ENSAI); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon (ENS de LYON); Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1; Universite Jean Monnet; Universite Lyon 2
摘要：We show that welfare can be lower under complete financial markets than under autarky in a monetary union with home bias, sticky prices, and asymmetric shocks. Such a monetary union is a second-best environment in which the structure of financial markets affects risk-sharing but also shapes the dynamics of inflation rates and the welfare costs from nominal rigidities. Welfare reversals arise for a variety of empirically plausible degrees of price stickiness when the Marshall-Lerner condition i...
