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作者：Geanakoplos, John; Wang, Haobin
作者单位：Yale University; The Santa Fe Institute; International Monetary Fund
摘要：The steady application of quantitative easing (QE) has been followed by big and nonmonotonic effects on international asset prices and capital flows. We rationalize these observations in a model in which a central bank buys domestic assets that serve as the best collateral for investors worldwide. The crucial insight is that domestic private agents adjust their portfolios of domestic and foreign assets in different ways to offset QE, conditional on whether they are (i) fully leveraged, (ii) pa...
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作者：Wolf, Christian K.
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：I argue that the seemingly disparate findings of the recent empirical literature on monetary policy transmission are all consistent with the same standard macro models. Weak sign restrictions, which suggest that contractionary monetary policy, if anything, boosts output, present as policy shocks what actually are expansionary demand and supply shocks. Classical zero restrictions are robust to such misidentification, but miss short-horizon effects. Two recent approaches-restrictions on Taylor r...
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作者：Baley, Isaac; Blanco, Andres
作者单位：Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We develop a framework to study the impact of idiosyncratic uncertainty on aggregate economic outcomes. Agents learn about individual characteristics, which receive infrequent, large, and persistent shocks. In this environment, idiosyncratic uncertainty moves in cycles, fluctuating between periods of high and low uncertainty; with additional fixed adjustment costs, the frequency and size of agents' actions also fluctuate in cycles. We apply our framework to study pricing behavior and the propa...
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作者：Hall, Robert E.; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam
作者单位：Stanford University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：Matching efficiency is the productivity of the process for matching job-seekers to available jobs. Job-finding is the output; vacant jobs and active job-seekers are the inputs. We develop a framework for measuring matching productivity when the population of job-seekers is heterogeneous. We find that overall matching efficiency declined smoothly over the period from 2001 through 2013. Measures of matching efficiency that neglect heterogeneity among the unemployed and also neglect job-seekers o...
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作者：Bems, Rudolfs; Johnson, Robert C.
作者单位：University of Tokyo; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We examine how cross-border input linkages shape the response of demand for value added to international relative price changes. We define a novel value-added real effective exchange rate (REER), which aggregates bilateral value-added price changes. Spillovers via input linkages lower the sensitivity of the value-added REER to price changes by supply chain partners because they counterbalance demand-side expenditure switching. Input linkages also raise the price elasticity of demand relative t...
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作者：Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie; Uribe, Martin
作者单位：Columbia University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper proposes a model that explains the joint occurrence of liquidity traps and jobless growth recoveries. Its key elements are downward nominal wage rigidity, a Taylor-type interest rate feedback rule, the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, and a confidence shock. Absent a change in policy, the model predicts that low inflation and high unemployment become chronic. With capital accumulation, the model predicts, in addition, an investment slump. The paper identifies a New Fisher...
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作者：Rotemberg, Julio J.
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：Overoptimism regarding one's ability to arrive early in a queue is shown to rationalize deposit contracts in which people can withdraw their funds on demand even if consumption takes place later. Capitalized institutions serving overoptimistic depositors emerge in equilibrium even if depositors and bank owners have identical preferences and investment opportunities. Consistent with the evidence, runs can lead people to move their deposits from one intermediary to another. Regulatory policies, ...
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作者：Del Negro, Marco; Giannoni, Marc P.; Schorfheide, Frank
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Several prominent economists have argued that existing DSGE models cannot properly account for the evolution of key macroeconomic variables during and following the recent Great Recession. We challenge this argument by showing that a standard DSGE model with financial frictions available prior to the recent crisis successfully predicts a sharp contraction in economic activity along with a protracted but relatively modest decline in inflation, following the rise in financial stress in 2008:IV. ...
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作者：Ardagna, Silvia; Caselli, Francesco
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We review the events that led to the May 2010 and July 2011 bailout agreements. We interpret the bailouts as outcomes of political-economy equilibria. We argue that these equilibria were likely not on the Pareto frontier, and sketch political-economy arguments for why collective policymaking in the Euro area may lead to suboptimal outcomes.
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作者：Beechey, Meredith J.; Johannsen, Benjamin K.; Levin, Andrew T.
作者单位：Sveriges Riksbank; Northwestern University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper compares the evolution of long-run inflation expectations in the euro area and the United States, using evidence from financial markets and surveys of professional forecasters. Survey data indicate that long-run inflation expectations are reasonably well anchored in both economies but reveal substantially greater dispersion across forecasters' long-horizon projections of US inflation. Analysis of daily data on inflation swaps and nominal-indexed bond spreads, which gauge compensatio...
