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作者：Mandelman, Federico S.; Zlate, Andrei
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We show that the observed polarization of employment toward the high-and low-skill occupations disappears when only native workers are considered. Instead, low-skilled immigration explains employment growth at the low tail of the skill distribution. Moreover, while employment rose, wages remained subdued in low-skill occupations. A data-disciplined structural model accounts for this evidence: Offshoring and automation negatively affect middle-skill occupations but enhance employment and wages ...
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作者：Ates, Sina T.; Saffie, Felipe E.
作者单位：University of Virginia
摘要：We develop a tractable quantitative framework to study the productivity effects of financial crises. The model features endogenous productivity, heterogeneous firm dynamics, and aggregate risk. Selection of the most promising ideas gives rise to a trade-off between mass (quantity) and composition (quality) in the entrant cohort. Chilean plant-level data from the sudden stop triggered by the Russian sovereign default in 1998 confirm the model's main mechanism, as firms born during the credit sh...
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作者：Alvarez, Jorge A.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：A key feature of developing economies is that wages in agriculture are below those of other sectors. Using Brazilian household surveys and administrative panel data, I use information on workers who switch sectors and workers with multiple jobs to assess the role of worker composition in explaining this gap. The evidence is consistent with the presence of significant intersector sorting in Brazil. A calibrated sorting model can account for the wage gap level observed, as well as its decline, a...
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作者：Lunsford, Kurt G.; West, Kenneth D.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We study long-run correlations between safe real interest rates in the United States and over 30 variables that have been hypothesized to influence real rates. The list of variables is motivated by an intertermporal IS equation, by models of aggregate savings and investment, and by reduced-form studies. We use annual data, mostly from 1890 to 2016. We find that safe real interest rates are correlated as expected with demographic measures. For example, the long-run correlation with labor force ...
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作者：Ottonello, Pablo; Perez, Diego J.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; New York University
摘要：We study the currency composition of sovereign debt in emerging economies through the lens of a model in which the government lacks commitment regarding debt and monetary policy. High levels of debt in local currency give rise to incentives to dilute debt repayment through currency depreciation. Governments tilt the currency composition of debt toward foreign currency to avoid inflationary costs and real exchange rate distortions, at the expense of forgoing the hedging properties of local curr...
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作者：Garetto, Stefania
作者单位：Boston University
摘要：I propose a general equilibrium framework where firms decide whether to outsource or integrate input manufacturing, domestically or abroad. By outsourcing, firms may benefit from suppliers' technologies, but pay mark-up prices. By sourcing intrafirm, they save on mark-ups and pay possibly lower foreign wages. Multinational corporations arise when firms integrate production abroad. The model predicts that intrafirm imports are positively correlated with the mean and variance of the firms' produ...
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作者：Eusepi, Stefano; Preston, Bruce
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Columbia University; Australian National University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The value of communication is analyzed in a model in which agents' expectations need not be consistent with central bank policy. Without communication, the Taylor principle is not sufficient for macroeconomic stability: divergent learning dynamics are possible. Three communication strategies are contemplated to ensure consistency between private forecasts and monetary policy strategy: communicating the precise details of policy; communicating only the variables on which policy decisions are co...
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作者：Akyapi, Berkay; Bellon, Matthieu; Massetti, Emanuele
作者单位：State University System of Florida; University of Florida; International Monetary Fund
摘要：The literature studying the macroeconomics of weather has focused on temperature and precipitation annual averages, while micro studies have focused more on extreme weather measures. We construct hundreds of variables from high-frequency, high-spatial-resolution weather measurements. Using the LASSO, we identify the parsimonious subset of variables that can best explain GDP and key macrofiscal variables. We find that scarcer mild temperatures and an increase in the occurrence of high temperatu...
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作者：Macaluso, Claudia
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：Local skill remoteness captures the dissimilarity between the skill profiles of a worker's last job and other jobs in a local labor market. Higher skill remoteness at layoff is associated with persistently lower earnings after layoff, a higher probability of changing occupation, a lower probability of being reemployed at jobs with similar skill profiles, and a higher propensity to migrate. Jobs destroyed in recessions are also more skill remote than those lost in booms. The local skill remoten...
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作者：Burlon, Lorenzo; Munoz, Manuel a.; Smets, Frank
作者单位：European Central Bank; Ghent University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We show that the estimated effect of digital euro news on bank stock valuations and lending depends on the bank's deposit reliance and the central bank digital currency ( CBDC ) design features. Using a quantitative DSGE model calibrated to the euro area economy that replicates such evidence, we find that CBDC issuance yields nontrivial welfare trade-offs between, on one side, the positive expansion of liquidity services and the improved stabilization of deposit funding and lending and, on the...
