Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Del Negro, Marco; Giannoni, Marc P.; Schorfheide, Frank
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of Pennsylvania
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20140097
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 168-196
• 关键词: nominal rigidities; US; DYNAMICS; beliefs; prices; shocks

摘要

Several prominent economists have argued that existing DSGE models cannot properly account for the evolution of key macroeconomic variables during and following the recent Great Recession. We challenge this argument by showing that a standard DSGE model with financial frictions available prior to the recent crisis successfully predicts a sharp contraction in economic activity along with a protracted but relatively modest decline in inflation, following the rise in financial stress in 2008:IV. The model does so even though inflation remains very dependent on the evolution of economic activity and of monetary policy.