SVAR (Mis) Identification and the Real Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Wolf, Christian K.
署名单位：
University of Chicago
刊物名称：
AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
ISSN/ISSBN：
1945-7707
DOI：
10.1257/mac.20180328
发表日期：
2020
页码：
1-32
关键词：
摘要：
I argue that the seemingly disparate findings of the recent empirical literature on monetary policy transmission are all consistent with the same standard macro models. Weak sign restrictions, which suggest that contractionary monetary policy, if anything, boosts output, present as policy shocks what actually are expansionary demand and supply shocks. Classical zero restrictions are robust to such misidentification, but miss short-horizon effects. Two recent approaches-restrictions on Taylor rules and external instruments-instead work well. My findings suggest that empirical evidence is consistent with models in which the real effects of monetary policy are larger than commonly estimated.
来源URL：