Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not All Alike

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Di Pace, Federico; Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220035
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 24-64
• 关键词: flexible exchange-rates; oil-supply shocks; business cycles; monetary-policy; world prices; balance; output; income; identification; fluctuations

摘要

Terms of trade are an inaccurate empirical proxy for how fluctuations in international prices affect the economy. To capture the relevance of terms-of-trade fluctuations for the domestic business cycle, the role of export and import prices needs to be analyzed separately. Using a sample of developing economies, we find that the economy's response to a positive export price shock does not mirror the response to a negative import price shock. (JEL E23, E32, E43, F14, F44, O11)