A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Eggertsson, Gauti B.; Mehrotra, Neil R.; Robbins, Jacob A.
• 署名单位: Brown University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20170367
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 1-48
• 关键词: inflation; decline; GROWTH; consumption; INVESTMENT; rigidities; progress; ECONOMY; POLICY; debt

摘要

This paper formalizes and quantifies the secular stagnation hypothesis, defined as a persistently low or negative natural rate of interest leading to a chronically binding zero lower bound (ZLB). Output-inflation dynamics and policy prescriptions are fundamentally different from those in the standard New Keynesian framework. Using a 56-period quantitative life cycle model, a standard calibration to US data delivers a natural rate ranging from - 1.5 percent to - 2 percent, implying an elevated risk of ZLB episodes for the foreseeable future. We decompose the contribution of demographic and technological factors to the decline in interest rates since 1970 and quantify changes required to restore higher rates.