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作者：Elzayn, Hadi; Smith, Evelyn; Hertz, Thomas; Guage, Cameron; Ramesh, Arun; Fisher, Robin; Ho, Daniel E.; Goldin, Jacob
作者单位：Stanford University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of California System; University of California Davis; United States Department of the Treasury; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：Tax authorities around the world rely on audits to detect underreported tax liabilities and to verify that taxpayers qualify for the benefits they claim. We study differences in Internal Revenue Service audit rates between Black and non-Black taxpayers. Because neither we nor the IRS observe taxpayer race, we propose and use a novel partial identification strategy to estimate these differences. Despite race-blind audit selection, we find that Black taxpayers are audited at 2.9 to 4.7 times the...
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作者：Aizer, Anna; Early, Nancy; Eli, Shari; Imbens, Guido; Lee, Keyoung; Lleras-Muney, Adriana; Strand, Alexander
作者单位：Brown University; University of Toronto; Stanford University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We study the lifetime effects of the first and largest American youth employment and training program in the United States-the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), 1933-1942. We match newly digitized enrollee records to census, World War II enlistment, Social Security, and death records. We find that longer service in the CCC led to improvements in height, health status, longevity, geographic mobility, and lifetime earnings but did not improve short-term labor market outcomes, including employme...
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作者：Rambachan, Ashesh
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Decision makers, such as doctors, judges, and managers, make consequential choices based on predictions of unknown outcomes. Do these decision makers make systematic prediction mistakes based on the available information? If so, in what ways are their predictions systematically biased? In this article, I characterize conditions under which systematic prediction mistakes can be identified in empirical settings such as hiring, medical diagnosis, and pretrial release. I derive a statistical test ...
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作者：Andrabi, Tahir; Bau, Natalie; Das, Jishnu; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Khwaja, Asim Ijaz
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Pomona College; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Georgetown University; CGIAR; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We estimate the equilibrium effects of a public school grant program administered through school councils in Pakistani villages with multiple public and private schools and clearly defined catchment boundaries. The program was randomized at the village level, allowing us to estimate its causal impact on the market. Four years after the start of the program, test scores were 0.2 standard deviations higher in public schools. We find evidence of an education multiplier: test scores in private sch...
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作者：Gertler, Paul; Green, Brett; Wolfram, Catherine
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Washington University (WUSTL); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：A new form of secured lending using digital collateral has recently emerged, most prominently in low- and middle-income countries. Digital collateral relies on lockout technology, which allows the lender to temporarily disable the flow value of the collateral to the borrower without physically repossessing it. We explore this new form of credit in a model and a field experiment using school-fee loans digitally secured with a solar home system. Securing a loan with digital collateral drasticall...
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作者：Evsyukova, Yulia; Rusche, Felix; Mill, Wladislaw
作者单位：University of Mannheim; Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
摘要：We assess the impact of discrimination on Black individuals' job networks across the United States using a two-stage field experiment with 400+ fictitious LinkedIn profiles. In the first stage, we vary race via AI-generated images only and find that Black profiles' connection requests are 13% less likely to be accepted. Based on users' CVs, we find widespread discrimination across social groups. In the second stage, we exogenously endow Black and white profiles with the same networks and ask c...
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作者：Karing, Anne
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：This article explores the use of social signaling as a policy tool to sustainably affect childhood immunization. In a 26-month field experiment with public clinics in Sierra Leone, I introduce a verifiable signal-in the form of color-coded bracelets-given to children upon timely completion of the first four or all five required vaccinations. Signals increase parents' belief in the visibility of their actions and knowledge of other children's vaccine status. The impact of signals varies signifi...
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作者：Akbarpour, Mohammad; Budish, Eric; Dworczak, Piotr; Kominers, Scott Duke
作者单位：Stanford University; University of Chicago; Northwestern University; Harvard University
摘要：We propose an economic framework for determining the optimal allocation of a scarce supply of vaccines that become gradually available during a public health crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Agents differ in observable and unobservable characteristics, and the designer maximizes a social welfare function over all feasible mechanisms-accounting for agents' characteristics, as well as their endogenous behavior in the face of the pandemic. The framework emphasizes the role of externalities ...
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作者：Jaravel, Xavier; Lashkari, Danial
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：How should we measure changes in consumer welfare given observed data on prices and expenditures? This article proposes a nonparametric approach that holds under arbitrary preferences that may depend on observable consumer characteristics, for example, when expenditure shares vary with income. Using total expenditures under a constant set of prices as our money metric for real consumption (welfare), we derive a principled measure of real consumption growth featuring a correction term relative ...
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作者：Auclert, Adrien; Rigato, Rodolfo; Rognlie, Matthew; Straub, Ludwig
作者单位：Stanford University; European Central Bank; Northwestern University; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We show that in a broad class of menu cost models, the first-order dynamics of aggregate inflation in response to arbitrary shocks to aggregate costs are nearly the same as in Calvo models with suitably chosen Calvo adjustment frequencies. We first prove that the canonical menu cost model is first-order equivalent to a mixture of two time-dependent models, which reflect the extensive and intensive margins of price adjustment. We then show numerically that in any plausible parameterization, thi...
