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作者：Finkelstein, Amy; Notowidigdo, Matthew J.; Schilbach, Frank; Zhang, Jonathan
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; Duke University
摘要：We leverage spatial variation in the severity of the Great Recession across the United States to examine its impact on mortality and explore the quantitative implications. We estimate that an increase in the unemployment rate of the magnitude of the Great Recession reduces the average annual age-adjusted mortality rate by 2.3%, with effects persisting for at least 10 years. Mortality reductions appear across causes of death and are concentrated in the half of the population with a high school ...
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作者：Del Canto, Felipe; Grigsby, John; Qian, Eric; Walsh, Conor
作者单位：Harvard University; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
摘要：We develop a framework to measure the welfare impact of macroeconomic shocks throughout the distribution. The first-order impact of a shock is summarized by the induced movements in agents' feasible sets: their budget constraint and borrowing constraints. We combine estimated impulse response functions with micro-data on household consumption bundles, asset holdings, and labor income for different U.S. households. We find that inflationary oil shocks are regressive, but monetary expansions are...
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作者：Kalyani, Aakash; Bloom, Nicholas; Carvalho, Marcela; Hassan, Tarek; Lerner, Josh; Tahoun, Ahmed
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; London Business School; Boston University; Harvard University
摘要：We identify phrases associated with novel technologies using textual analysis of patents, job postings, and earnings calls, enabling us to identify four stylized facts on the diffusion of jobs relating to new technologies. First, the development of economically impactful new technologies is geographically highly concentrated, more so even than overall patenting: 56% of the most economically impactful technologies come from just two U.S. locations, Silicon Valley and the Northeast Corridor. Sec...
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作者：Gottlieb, Joshua D.; Polyakova, Maria; Rinz, Kevin; Shiplett, Hugh; Udalova, Victoria
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; University of New Brunswick
摘要：Is government guiding the invisible hand at the top of the labor market? We use new administrative data to measure physicians' earnings and estimate the influence of health care policies on these earnings, physicians' labor supply, and the allocation of talent. Combining the administrative registry of U.S. physicians with tax data, Medicare billing records, and survey responses, we find that physicians' annual earnings average $350,000 and make up 8.6% of national health care spending. Busines...
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作者：Finkelstein, Amy; Gentzkow, Matthew; Li, Dean
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We develop and estimate a dynamic model of risky prescription opioid use that allows us to unpack the role of person- and place-specific drivers of the opioid epidemic and assess the impact of state opioid policies. Event studies indicate that among adults receiving federal disability insurance from 2006 to 2019, moves to states with higher rates of risky use produce an immediate jump in the probability of risky use, followed by an additional gradual increase for the next several years. Using ...
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作者：Hill, Ryan; Stein, Carolyn
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：This article investigates how competition to publish first and thereby establish priority affects the quality of scientific research. We begin by developing a model where scientists decide whether and how long to work on a given project. When deciding how long they should let their projects mature, scientists trade off the marginal benefit of higher-quality research against the marginal risk of being preempted. Projects with the highest scientific potential are the most competitive because the...
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作者：Lane, Nathan
作者单位：University of Oxford; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：I study the effect of industrial policies on industrial development by considering an important episode during the East Asian miracle: South Korea's heavy and chemical industry (HCI) drive, 1973-1979. Based on newly assembled data, I use the introduction and termination of industrial policies to study their effects during and after the intervention period. I reveal that HCI policies promoted the expansion and dynamic comparative advantage of directly targeted industries. Using variation in exp...
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作者：Derenoncourt, Ellora; Weil, David
作者单位：Princeton University; Brandeis University
摘要：Low unionization rates, a falling real federal minimum wage, and outsourcing have hampered wage growth in the low-wage sector in the United States for several decades. In recent years (2014-2023), a number of large private retailers-including some of the largest employers in the United States-have opted to institute or raise company-wide, voluntary minimum wages (VMWs) for their employees. We use anonymized payroll data from a large credit bureau and a major payroll provider to study the effec...
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作者：Maxted, Peter
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：By augmenting the continuous-time specification of Harris and Laibson (2013) with the assumption that hard borrowing constraints do not bind in equilibrium, present bias can be tractably incorporated into rich consumption-saving models featuring stochastic income, risky and illiquid assets, and costly borrowing. I present closed-form expressions characterizing how present bias affects consumption, illiquid asset demand, and welfare. This welfare analysis specifies the channels through which pr...
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作者：Greenstone, Michael; Pande, Rohini; Ryan, Nicholas; Sudarshan, Anant
作者单位：University of Chicago; Yale University; University of Warwick
摘要：Market-based environmental regulations are seldom used in low-income countries, where pollution is highest but state capacity is often low. We collaborated with the Gujarat Pollution Control Board (GPCB) to design and experimentally evaluate the world's first particulate-matter emissions market, which covered industrial plants in a large Indian city. There are three main findings. First, the market functioned well. Treatment plants, randomly assigned to the emissions market, traded permits to ...
