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作者：Matranga, Andrea
作者单位：University of Turin
摘要：The Neolithic revolution saw the independent development of agriculture among at least seven unconnected hunter-gatherer populations. I propose that the rapid spread of agricultural techniques resulted from increased climatic seasonality causing hunter-gatherers to adopt a sedentary lifestyle and store food for the season of scarcity. Their newfound sedentary lifestyle and storage habits facilitated the invention of agriculture. I present a model and support it with global climate data and Neo...
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作者：Jaeger, Simon; Roth, Christopher; Roussille, Nina; Schoefer, Benjamin
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Cologne; Max Planck Society; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Standard labor market models assume that workers hold accurate beliefs about the external wage distribution, and hence their outside options with other employers. We test this assumption by comparing German workers' beliefs about outside options with objective benchmarks. First, we find that workers wrongly anchor their beliefs about outside options on their current wage: workers that would experience a 10% wage change if switching to their outside option only expect a 1% change. Second, worke...
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作者：Maxted, Peter; Laibson, David; Moll, Benjamin
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Harvard University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We study the effect of monetary and fiscal policy in a heterogeneous-agent model where households have present-biased time preferences and naive beliefs. The model features a liquid asset and illiquid home equity, which households can use as collateral for borrowing. Because present bias substantially increases households' marginal propensity to consume (MPC), present bias increases the effect of fiscal policy. Present bias also amplifies the effect of monetary policy, but at the same time, sl...
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作者：Wachter, Jessica A.; Kahana, Michael Jacob
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC)
摘要：Studies of human memory indicate that features of an event evoke memories of prior associated contextual states, which in turn become associated with the current event's features. This retrieved-context mechanism allows the remote past to influence the present, even as agents gradually update their beliefs about their environment. We apply a version of retrieved-context theory, drawn from the literature on human memory, to explain three types of evidence in the financial economics literature: ...
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作者：Bhatt, Monica P.; Heller, Sara B.; Kapustin, Max; Bertrand, Marianne; Blattman, Christopher
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Chicago; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Cornell University; University of Chicago; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Chicago
摘要：Gun violence is the most pressing public safety problem in U.S. cities. We report results from a randomized controlled trial (N = 2,456) of a community-researcher partnership called the Rapid Employment and Development Initiative (READI) Chicago. The program offered an 18-month job alongside cognitive behavioral therapy and other social support. Both algorithmic and human referral methods identified men with strikingly high scope for gun violence reduction: for every 100 people in the control ...
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作者：Mitrunen, Matti
作者单位：University of Helsinki
摘要：From 1944 to 1952, largely agrarian Finland had to export, on average, 4% of its yearly GDP in industrial products to the Soviet Union as war reparations. To meet the reparation demands, the Finnish state needed to provide extensive temporary support to Soviet-assigned industries with insufficient production capacity. This article documents the long-term effects of this extensive and temporary industrial policy on industrial and local development and on individual outcomes. Using newly digitiz...
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作者：Andrews, Isaiah; Kitagawa, Toru; McCloskey, Adam
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Brown University; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：Policy makers, firms, and researchers often choose among multiple options based on estimates. Sampling error in the estimates used to guide choice leads to a winner's curse, since we are more likely to select a given option precisely when we overestimate its effectiveness. This winner's curse biases our estimates for selected options upward and can invalidate conventional confidence intervals. This article develops estimators and confidence intervals that eliminate this winner's curse. We illu...
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作者：Boning, William C.; Hendren, Nathaniel; Sprung-Keyser, Ben; Stuart, Ellen
作者单位：United States Department of the Treasury; University of Massachusetts System; University of Pennsylvania; University of Sydney
摘要：We estimate the returns to IRS audits of taxpayers across the income distribution. We find an additional $1 spent auditing taxpayers above the 90th income percentile yields more than $12 in revenue, while audits of below-median income taxpayers yield $5. We construct our estimates by drawing from comprehensive internal accounting information and audit-level enforcement logs. We begin by estimating the average initial return to all audits of U.S. taxpayers filing in tax years 2010-2014. On aver...
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作者：Chandra, Amitabh; Flack, Evan; Obermeyer, Ziad
作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：What happens when patients suddenly stop their medications? We study the health consequences of drug interruptions caused by large, abrupt, and arbitrary changes in price. Medicare's prescription drug benefit as-if-randomly assigns 65-year-olds a drug budget as a function of their birth month, beyond which out-of-pocket costs suddenly increase. Those facing smaller budgets consume fewer drugs and die more: mortality increases 0.0164 percentage points per month (13.9%) for each $100 per month b...
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作者：Dube, Oeindrila; Macarthur, Sandy Jo; Shah, Anuj K.
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University
摘要：What causes adverse policing outcomes, such as excessive uses of force and unnecessary arrests? Prevailing explanations focus on problematic officers or deficient regulations and oversight. We introduce an overlooked perspective. We suggest that the cognitive demands inherent in policing can undermine officer decision making. Unless officers are prepared for these demands, they may jump to conclusions too quickly without fully considering alternative ways of seeing a situation. This can lead t...
