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作者：He, Kevin; Sandomirskiy, Fedor; Tamuz, Omer
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Princeton University; California Institute of Technology
摘要：Private signals model noisy information about an unknown state. Although these signals are called private, they may still carry information about each other. Our paper introduces the concept of private private signals, which contain information about the state but not about other signals. To achieve privacy, signal quality may need to be sacrificed. We study the informativeness of private private signals and characterize those that are optimal in the sense that they cannot be made more informa...
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作者：Vreugdenhil, Nicholas
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：How efficiently do markets reallocate capital in booms and busts? Using a novel dataset of offshore drilling contracts, I examine the role of matching in shaping industry reallocation. Oil companies search and match with capital (rigs) in a decentralized market. I find that oil and gas booms increase the option value of searching, which leads agents to avoid bad matches, reducing mismatch through a sorting effect. I provide an identification strategy to disentangle unobserved demand changes fr...
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作者：Pellegrina, Heitor S.; Sotelo, Sebastian
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We study how migration shapes aggregate and regional comparative advantage, exploiting a large migration of farmers to Brazil's West between 1950 and 2010. Migration allowed workers to sort according to their own comparative advantage, reallocating knowledge and raw labor to high-productivity regions. In a quantitative model, we find that migration cost reductions reshaped Brazil's comparative advantage and contributed to its rise as a leading commodity exporter-accounting for 25% of the obser...
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作者：Baseler, Travis; Ginn, Thomas; Hakiza, Robert; Ogude-Chambert, Helidah; Woldemikael, Olivia
作者单位：University of Rochester; Center for Global Development - Europe; University of Oxford; The New School
摘要：Many public policies create winners and losers, but it is unclear whether redistribution can support new political economy equilibria that raise aggregate welfare. We study policies that partially redistribute foreign aid for refugees to natives while allowing refugees to work and move freely. Cash grants to Ugandan and Kenyan natives, labeled as aid from the refugee response, substantially increase support for refugee integration. Information about existing redistribution has significant but ...
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作者：Finan, Frederico; Mazzocco, Maurizio
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：In this paper, we develop a dynamic model of politicians who can engage in corruption. The model provides important insights into the determinants of corruption and how to design policies to combat it. We estimate the model using data from Brazil to measure voters' willingness to pay for various commonly proposed anticorruption policies, such as increasing audit probabilities, raising politicians' wages, and extending term limits. We document that while audit policies effectively reduce corrup...
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作者：Le Grand, Francois; Ragot, Xavier
作者单位：Universite de Rennes; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We analyze optimal fiscal policy in a heterogeneous-agent model with capital accumulation and aggregate shocks, where the government uses public debt, a capital tax, and a progressive labor tax to finance public spending. We first study a tractable model and show that the steady-state optimal capital tax can be positive if credit constraints are occasionally binding. However, the existence of such an equilibrium depends on the shape of the utility function. We also characterize the optimal dyn...
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作者：Atal, Juan Pablo; Fang, Hanming; Karlsson, Martin; Ziebarth, Nicolas R.
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Duisburg Essen; University of Gothenburg; University of Mannheim
摘要：German long-term health insurance (GLTHI) represents the largest market for private long-term health insurance contracts in the world. We show that GLTHI's contract design coincides with the optimal dynamic contract for individuals with constant lifetime income profiles. After estimating the key ingredients of a life-cycle model, we find that, under a variety of assumptions, GLTHI achieves welfare that is at most 4% lower than for the optimal contract. Relative to the gains of replacing short-...
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作者：Nath, Ishan
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：This paper evaluates the potential for global reallocation between agricultural and nonagricultural production to contribute to climate change adaptation. Empirical estimates using a global sample of firms suggest that rising temperatures reduce productivity less in nonagriculture than angriculture, implying large potential gains if hot countries could increase food imports and shift labor toward manufacturing. However, model counterfactuals show that subsistence consumption needs and high tra...
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作者：Deb, Rahul; Pai, Mallesh M.; Said, Maher
作者单位：Boston College; Rice University; New York University
摘要：We provide an organizational economics foundation for commitment to information structures in persuasion. An uninformed principal faces a joint screening-and-persuasion problem: she wants to influence a receiver's belief about a payoff-relevant state using information elicited from a privately informed agent. The agent's messages are publicly observed, so the principal cannot commit to a garbling of private communications. We show that commitment only to an employment contract with the agent p...
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作者：Dettmer, Amanda M.; Heckman, James J.; Pantano, Juan; Ronda, Victor; Suomi, Stephen J.
作者单位：Yale University; University of Chicago; University of Hong Kong; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human Development (NICHD)
摘要：This paper uses three decades of data on rhesus monkeys to investigate the multigenerational effects of early-life advantage. Monkeys and their offspring are both randomly assigned to be reared together or apart from their mothers. For the first time, we document the intergenerational complementarity of early-life advantage, where the benefits of maternal rearing are present only for offspring of mothers who were themselves mother reared. This illustrates the intergenerational dynamics of soci...
