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作者：Cuciniello, Vincenzo; Michelacci, Claudio; Paciello, Luigi
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We study business creation subsidies in a general equilibrium model where firms are financially constrained upon entry and borrow competitively by issuing long-term debt. If paid out before business formation (ex ante), the subsidy reduces start-ups' debt and bankruptcy rates; if paid out as a refund of expenditures (ex post), it reduces equity rather than debt, raising bankruptcies among both new and existing firms. In a model calibrated to Southern Italy, the optimal subsidy is paid entirely...
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作者：Davila, Eduardo; Schaab, Andreas
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：This paper introduces a decomposition of welfare assessments for general dynamic stochastic economies with heterogeneous individuals. The decomposition is based on constructing individual, dynamic, and stochastic weights that characterize how welfarist planners make trade-offs across individuals, dates, and histories. Guided by the compensation principle, it initially decomposes a welfare assessment into an efficiency and a redistribution component, while the efficiency component is further de...
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作者：Fan, Ying; Yang, Chenyu
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：This paper presents a method for estimating discrete games based on bounds of conditional choice probabilities. The bounds are probabilities that an action is dominant and that it is not dominated. Because the bounds are easy to compute, our method is scalable to models with many firms and discrete decisions. We apply the method to study the effects of a hypothetical merger on firm entry and product variety in local retail craft beer markets in California. We find that the merger induces firm ...
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作者：Krishnamurthy, Arvind; Li, Wenhao
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Southern California
摘要：We develop a model of financial crises with both a financial amplification mechanism, via frictional intermediation, and a role for sentiment, via time-varying beliefs about an illiquidity state. The model accounts for the entire crisis cycle, matching data on the frothy precrisis behavior of asset markets and credit; the sharp transition to a crisis where asset values fall, disintermediation occurs, and output falls; and the slow postcrisis recovery in output. Both the intermediation and the ...
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作者：Galdon-Sanchez, Jose Enrique; Gil, Ricard; Uriz-Uharte, Guillermo
作者单位：Universidad Publica de Navarra; University of Navarra; IESE Business School
摘要：We empirically investigate how the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) changes when gaining access to market information. To do so, we evaluate the impact of an information program diffused by a bank among its SME customers. Adopting firms gained access to reports with rich information about their own clientele and that of nearby establishments. While we find that adoption is associated with a 4.5% revenue increase, our instrumental variable results indicate that adoption ...
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作者：List, John A.
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; Australian National University
摘要：Many ideas succeed in small trials but weaken considerably at scale. Using early childhood investment as a case study, this paper develops a dynamic microfounded human capital model stylized in the Chicago tradition. The framework features optimizing agents, complementary skill formation, and a policymaker choosing scaling strategies. The model shows that naive extrapolation from pilots systematically overestimates societal impact by overlooking voltage drops: declining benefit-cost profiles d...
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作者：Elsby, Michael W. L.; Gottfries, Axel; Michaels, Ryan; Ratner, David
作者单位：University of Edinburgh; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Replacement hiring plays a central role in establishment dynamics. US establishments frequently report no net change in their employment, often for years, despite facing substantial gross turnover. We devise a tractable model in which replacement hiring is driven by a novel structure of frictions, combining firm dynamics, on-the-job search, and investments into job creation that are sunk at the point of replacement. A key implication is the emergence of vacancy chains. Quantitatively, the mode...
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作者：Wolf, Christian K.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：I derive a general condition on consumer behavior ensuring that, in a standard model of demand-determined output, any path of inflation and output that is implementable via interest rate policy is also implementable through time-varying uniform transfers. In an analytical model with occasionally binding borrowing constraints, my condition holds generically. In a quantitative heterogeneous-agent model, the transfer policy that closes any given demand shortfall is furthermore well characterized ...
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作者：Rostek, Marzena; Yoon, Ji Hee
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of London; University College London
摘要：Decentralized trading motivates financial innovation, making synthetic products like derivatives nonredundant, even when all traders trade all assets. This nonredundancy arises because derivatives affect cross-security inference (information) and, in markets with large traders, equilibrium price impact (liquidity). The efficient securities differ from the underlying assets. While the market index/mutual funds are efficient in decentralized markets with competitive investors, heterogeneous port...
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作者：Bernstein, Asaf; Frydman, Carola; Hilt, Eric
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; Wellesley College
摘要：We study the first-ever ratings for corporate securities. In 1909, John Moody published a book that partitioned the majority of listed railroad bonds into letter-graded ratings. These ratings had no regulatory implications and were largely explainable using publicly available information. We find that lower-than-market-implied ratings caused a rise in secondary market bond yields and that bonds that were rated experienced a substantial decline in their bid-ask spreads, consistent with reduced ...
