Journal of Political Economy

最新文章

• Glass Walls: Experimental Evidence on Constraints Faced by Women in Accessing Valuable Skilling Opportunities AI翻译
  作者：Cheema, Ali; Khwaja, Asim I.; Naseer, M. Farooq; Shapiro, Jacob N.
  作者单位：Lahore University of Management Sciences; Harvard University; Lahore University of Management Sciences; Princeton University
  摘要：Experimental evidence from Pakistan shows that distance poses a large and discontinuous access constraint: women with village-based training centers are four times more likely to access valued training opportunities. More than half of the travel penalty is incurred when crossing the village boundary. Exogenous stipend variation reveals that this boundary effect is costly to offset and is not explained by travel costs. Security considerations are an important factor: providing secure group tran...
• Changes in Marital Sorting: Theory and Evidence from the United States AI翻译
  作者：Chiappori, Pierre-Andre; Costa Dias, Monica; Meghir, Costas; Zhang, Hanzhe
  作者单位：Columbia University; University of Bristol; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Michigan State University
  摘要：Positive assortative matching refers to the tendency of individuals with similar characteristics to form partnerships. Measuring the extent to which assortative matching differs between two economies is challenging when the marginal distributions of the sorting characteristic (e.g., education) change for either or both sexes. We show how the use of different measures can generate different conclusions. We provide an axiomatic characterization for the odds ratio, normalized trace, and likelihoo...
• The Incredible Taylor Principle: A Comment AI翻译
  作者：Neumeyer, Pablo Andres; Nicolini, Juan Pablo
  作者单位：Universidad Torcuato Di Tella; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
• Targeting Precision Medicine: Evidence from Prenatal Screening AI翻译
  作者：Conner, Peter; Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Persson, Petra
  作者单位：Karolinska Institutet; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)
  摘要：We study the introduction of a noninvasive prenatal screening-cell-free DNA (cfDNA) screening-which is used to target a more costly invasive test that elevates miscarriage risk. Using Swedish administrative data, we document that coverage of cfDNA substantially increases cfDNA screening and reduces invasive testing. We develop and estimate a stylized model of prenatal choices and find that narrow targeting of cfDNA coverage can improve outcomes and reduce costs, while broader coverage also imp...
• Debiasing and t-Tests for Synthetic Control Inference on Average Causal Effects AI翻译
  作者：Chernozhukov, Victor; Wuthrich, Kaspar; Zhu, Yinchu
  作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of London; University College London; Brandeis University
  摘要：We propose a practical and robust method for making inference on average treatment effects estimated by synthetic controls. We develop a K-fold cross-fitting procedure for bias correction. To avoid the difficult estimation of the long-run variance, inference is based on a self-normalized t-statistic, which has an asymptotically pivotal t-distribution. Our t-test is easy to implement, provably robust against misspecification, and valid with stationary and nonstationary data. It demonstrates an ...
• From Doubt to Devotion: Trials and Learning-Based Pricing AI翻译
  作者：Gan, Tan; Wu, Nicholas
  作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Yale University
  摘要：An informed seller designs a dynamic mechanism to sell an experience good. The seller has private information about product match, which affects the buyer's private consumption experience. The belief gap between both parties coupled with the buyer's learning yields mechanisms providing the skeptical buyer with limited access to the product and an option to upgrade if the buyer is swayed by a good experience. Depending on the seller's screening technology, this takes the form of free/discounted...
• Rules versus Discretion: Treatment of Mental Illness in US Adolescents AI翻译
  作者：Cuddy, Emily; Currie, Janet
  作者单位：Duke University; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：Many mental health disorders start in adolescence, and appropriate initial treatment may improve trajectories. But what is appropriate treatment? We use a large national database of insurance claims to examine the impact of initial mental health treatment on the outcomes of adolescent children over the next 2 years, where treatment is either consistent with US Food and Drug Administration guidelines, consistent with looser guidelines published by professional societies (gray area prescribing),...
• The Nature of Long-Term Unemployment: Predictability, Heterogeneity, and Selection AI翻译
  作者：Mueller, Andreas I.; Spinnewijn, Johannes
  作者单位：University of Zurich; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
  摘要：This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) using rich administrative data from Sweden. We establish substantial heterogeneity in LTU risk across individuals, accounting for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity using a wide range of observable predictors and multiple-spell outcomes, respectively. We apply our prediction algorithm to study the dynamics of job finding over the unemployment spell and the business cycle. Selection effects can explain most of the dec...
• There's More to Marriage Than Love: The Effect of Legal Status and Cultural Distance on Intermarriages and Separations AI翻译
  作者：Adda, Jerome; Pinotti, Paolo; Tura, Giulia
  作者单位：Bocconi University; University of Milano-Bicocca
  摘要：We analyze the contribution of legal status incentives on the marriage choices of natives and migrants. Access to legal status reduces the probability of immigrants intermarrying with natives by 40% and increases the hazard rate of separation for intermarriages by 20%. We develop and estimate a multidimensional equilibrium model of marriage, fertility, and separation, where individuals match on observed and unobserved characteristics. Allowing for trade-offs between cultural distance, legal st...
• Enhancing Human Capital in Children: A Case Study on Scaling AI翻译
  作者：Agostinelli, Francesco; Avitabile, Ciro; Bobba, Matteo
  作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; The World Bank; Communaute d'universites et etablissements de Toulouse (Comue); Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics
  摘要：This paper provides novel insights into the science of scaling by examining an educational mentoring program in Mexico. The empirical analysis encompasses two independent field experiments and seizes a unique opportunity to learn from the government's implementation of the same intervention. While the program originally implemented at scale demonstrates limited effectiveness, the introduction of a new modality with enhanced mentor training significantly improves children's outcomes. Mentor-par...