Migration, Specialization, and Trade: Evidence from Brazil's March to the West

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Pellegrina, Heitor S.; Sotelo, Sebastian
• 署名单位: University of Notre Dame; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/738147
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: comparative advantage; INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; Aggregate productivity; diffusion; MODEL; CONSEQUENCES; agriculture; KNOWLEDGE; countries; geography

摘要

We study how migration shapes aggregate and regional comparative advantage, exploiting a large migration of farmers to Brazil's West between 1950 and 2010. Migration allowed workers to sort according to their own comparative advantage, reallocating knowledge and raw labor to high-productivity regions. In a quantitative model, we find that migration cost reductions reshaped Brazil's comparative advantage and contributed to its rise as a leading commodity exporter-accounting for 25% of the observed changes in specialization. Road expansions were key drivers of migration. Migration opportunities, moreover, account for a substantial share of the gains from trade.