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作者：Hemous, David; Olsen, Morten; Zanella, Carlo; Dechezlepretre, Antoine
作者单位：University of Zurich; University of Copenhagen; Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD)
摘要：Do higher wages induce more automation innovation? We identify automation patents in machinery. We show that a higher automation intensity predicts a decline in routine tasks across US sectors. Then, we estimate how innovating firms respond to changes in their downstream firms' low- and high-skill wages. We compute these wages by combining macroeconomic data on 41 countries with innovating firms' global market exposure. Higher low-skill wages increase automation innovation (but not other machi...
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作者：De Nardi, Mariacristina; French, Eric; Jones, John Bailey; Mcgee, Rory
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; Federal Reserve System - USA; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Western University (University of Western Ontario)
摘要：We estimate a model of savings for retired couples and singles who face longevity and medical expense risks and in which couples can leave bequests both when the first spouse dies and when the last spouse dies. We show that saving motives vary by marital status, permanent income, and age. We find that most households save more for medical expenses than for bequests but that richer households and couples, who hold most of the wealth, save more for bequests. As a result, bequest motives are a ke...
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作者：Cui, Wei; Wright, Randall; Zhu, Yu
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of Groningen; Zhejiang University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; Renmin University of China
摘要：This paper studies economies where firms acquire capital in primary markets and then, after idiosyncratic productivity shocks, retrade it in secondary markets that incorporate bilateral trade with search, bargaining, and liquidity frictions. We distinguish between full or partial sales (one firm gets all or some of the other's capital) and document several long- and short-run empirical patterns between these variables and the cost of liquidity, as measured by inflation. Quantitatively, the mod...
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作者：Marquardt, Kelli
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：The mechanisms driving disparities in mental health care are not well understood. This paper develops a structural model of diagnosis for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), highlighting how patient and physician factors can result in disparities. Using electronic health record data, I estimate model parameters and decompose the observed male & ratio;female ADHD diagnostic difference of 2.3 & ratio;1. Simulations show that only 20%-25% of this diagnostic difference can be explaine...
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作者：Cook, Nikolai; Duprey, Thibaut; Heyes, Anthony; Pelli, Martino
作者单位：Wilfrid Laurier University; Bank of Canada; University of Birmingham; Asian Development Bank
摘要：Mayshar, Moav, and Pascali apply an instrumental variables identifica tion strategy to data from nearly 1,000 societies included in the Ethno graphic Atlas to claim that cultivation of cereals (appropriable by elites), rather than increased land productivity following the adoption of ag riculture, led to the development of the state. We show two things. (1) Evidence for the appropriability theory holds when moving from a tribe-chiefdom to a state and not more broadly. (2) Conclusions are drive...
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作者：Hai, Rong; Heckman, James
作者单位：University of Miami; University of Chicago
摘要：We develop and estimate a life-cycle model of addiction in which forward-looking youth choose to smoke, attend school, work part-time, and consume while facing borrowing constraints. The model features multiple channels for studying the reciprocal causal effects of addiction and education. Variations in endowments and cigarette prices are sources of identification. We show that education causally reduces smoking. A counterfactual experiment finds that in the absence of cigarette smoking, colle...
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作者：Ayres, Joao; Navarro, Gaston; Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Teles, Pedro
作者单位：Inter-American Development Bank; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella; Universidade Catolica Portuguesa; Banco de Portugal; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We assess the quantitative relevance of expectations-driven sovereign debt crises, focusing on the southern European crisis of the early 2010s and the Argentine default of 2001. The source of multiplicity is the one proposed by Calvo. Crucial for multiplicity is an output process characterized by long periods of either high growth or stagnation, which we estimate using data for these countries. Our analysis suggests that expectations-driven debt crises are quantitatively relevant but state dep...
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作者：Berger, Eva M.; Fehr, Ernst; Hermes, Henning; Schunk, Daniel; Winkel, Kirsten
作者单位：University of Zurich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz; University of Koblenz
摘要：Working-memory (WM) capacity is a key component of a wide range of cognitive and noncognitive skills-such as fluid IQ, math, reading, and inhibitory control-but can WM training improve these skills? Here, we examine the causal impact of WM training embedded in regular school teaching, using a randomized educational intervention with 6-7-year-old children. We find substantial gains in WM capacity and document positive spillover effects on geometry, fluid IQ, and inhibitory control. Three years ...
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作者：Arcidiacono, Peter; Aucejo, Esteban; Maurel, Arnaud; Ransom, Tyler
作者单位：Duke University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Oklahoma System; University of Oklahoma - Norman
摘要：We examine how informational frictions impact schooling and work outcomes by estimating a dynamic structural model where individuals face uncertainty about their academic ability and productivity, which determine their schooling utility and wages. We account for different college types, majors, occupational search frictions, and work hours. Individuals learn from grades and wages, which may affect their choices. Removing informational frictions would increase graduation by 4.4 percentage point...
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作者：Chetverikov, Denis; Sorensen, Jesper Riis-Vestergaard
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of Copenhagen
摘要：We develop a new method for selecting the penalty parameter for & ell;1-penalized M-estimators in high dimensions, which we refer to as bootstrapping after cross validation. We derive rates of convergence for the corresponding & ell;1-penalized M-estimator and also for the post-& ell;1-penalized M-estimator, which refits the nonzero entries of the former estimator without penalty in the criterion function. We demonstrate via simulations that our methods are not dominated by cross validation in...
