The Causal Effects of Youth Cigarette Addiction and Education

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hai, Rong; Heckman, James
• 署名单位: University of Miami; University of Chicago
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/739828
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: borrowing constraints; rational addiction; SMOKING INITIATION; empirical-analysis; HEALTH; nicotine; RISK; mortality; demand; credit

摘要

We develop and estimate a life-cycle model of addiction in which forward-looking youth choose to smoke, attend school, work part-time, and consume while facing borrowing constraints. The model features multiple channels for studying the reciprocal causal effects of addiction and education. Variations in endowments and cigarette prices are sources of identification. We show that education causally reduces smoking. A counterfactual experiment finds that in the absence of cigarette smoking, college attendance increases by 2 percentage points in the population. An alternative 25% additional excise tax achieves similar results. Impacts vary substantially across persons of different cognitive and noncognitive abilities.