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作者：Abaluck, Jason; Compiani, Giovanni; Zhang, Fan
作者单位：Yale University; University of Chicago; Universidade Nova de Lisboa
摘要：We state conditions under which choice data suffice to identify preferences when consumers may not be fully informed about attributes of goods. Our approach can be used to test for full information, forecast how consumers will respond to information, and conduct welfare analysis when consumers are imperfectly informed. In a lab experiment, we successfully forecast the average response to new information when consumers engage in costly search. In data from Expedia, our method identifies which a...
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作者：Ide, Enrique; Talamas, Eduard
作者单位：University of Navarra; IESE Business School
摘要：Artificial intelligence (AI) can transform the knowledge economy by automating noncodifiable work. To analyze this transformation, we incorporate AI into an economy where humans form hierarchical organizations: less knowledgeable individuals become workers doing routine work, while others become solvers handling exceptions. We model AI as a technology that converts computational resources into AI agents that operate autonomously (as coworkers and solvers/copilots) or nonautonomously (solely as...
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作者：Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti; Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Pereira, Luciene Torres de Mello
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Getulio Vargas Foundation
摘要：We study the emergence and persistence of urban slums in Brazil. Using data on labor markets, housing costs, and access to education, we construct a quantitative model to explore the impact of slums on the country's human capital and structural transformation. Urban slums emerge and persist due to their dual roles as intergenerational stepping stones for low-educated households and as blockades for higher-educated ones. Providing slum children access to schools in formal urban areas would have...
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作者：Gay, Victor; Gobbi, Paula E.; Goni, Marc
作者单位：Communaute d'universites et etablissements de Toulouse (Comue); Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Universite Libre de Bruxelles; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Bergen
摘要：We test Le Play's 1875 hypothesis that the French Revolution contributed to France's early fertility decline by imposing equal partition of inheritance among all children, including women. We combine new data on local inheritance rules before the Revolution and individual-level demographic data from historical sources and crowdsourced genealogies. Difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity estimates show that the inheritance reforms enacted during the Revolution reduced completed f...
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作者：Stokey, Nancy L.
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：In his work on economic development, Lucas's goals were to understand the enormous diversity across countries in levels and growth rates of per capita income and to build a framework for studying developing economies with the same kind of precision and rigor that the neoclassical growth model had brought to the study of already industrialized countries. Lucas found knowledge spillovers to be a key mechanism. Thus, human capital, which he viewed broadly, is at the center of much of his work, an...
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作者：Eliason, Paul; League, Riley; Leder-Luis, Jetson; Mcdevitt, Ryan C.; Roberts, James W.
作者单位：Utah System of Higher Education; University of Utah; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; Boston University; Duke University
摘要：We study the effectiveness of pay-and-chase lawsuits and up-front regulations for combating health-care fraud. Between 2003 and 2017, Medicare spent $7.7 billion on 37.5 million regularly scheduled ambulance rides for patients traveling to and from dialysis facilities even though many did not satisfy Medicare's criteria for receiving reimbursements. Using an identification strategy based on the staggered timing of regulations and lawsuits across the United States, we find that adding a prior a...
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作者：Halac, Marina; Yared, Pierre
作者单位：Yale University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We propose a political economy mechanism that explains the presence of fiscal regimes punctuated by crisis periods. Our model focuses on the interaction between successive deficit-biased governments subject to independently and identically distributed fiscal shocks. We show that the economy transitions between a fiscally responsible regime and a fiscally irresponsible regime, with transitions occurring during crises when fiscal needs are large. Under fiscal responsibility, governments limit th...
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作者：Jacome, Elisa; Kuziemko, Ilyana; Naidu, Suresh
作者单位：Northwestern University; Princeton University; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We estimate long-run trends in intergenerational relative mobility for representative samples of the US-born population. Harmonizing all surveys that include father's occupation and own family income, we develop a mobility measure that allows for the inclusion of nonwhite individuals and women for the 1910s-1970s birth cohorts. We show that mobility increases between the 1910s and 1940s cohorts and that the decline of Black-white income gaps explains about half of this rise. We also find that ...
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作者：Covert, Thomas R.; Kellogg, Ryan
作者单位：Airbnb; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study policies that aim to keep carbon in the ground by blocking fossil fuel infrastructure investment. Our analysis relies on a model of hydrocarbon production and transportation, incorporating substitution between pipeline infrastructure and flexible alternatives, like crude-by-rail. We apply the model to the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL), which moves oil from North Dakota to Texas and was controversially completed in 2017. Had DAPL's construction been enjoined, we estimate that 82% of th...
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作者：Bakkensen, Laura; Phan, Toan; Wong, Tsz-Nga
作者单位：University of Oregon; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We develop a credit search model with maturity choice where agents disagree on when a long-run disaster will damage collateral assets. It predicts that disaster-pessimistic agents are more likely to leverage risky asset purchases and prefer debt contracts with longer maturities. Intuitively, pessimists value the default option of debt contracts as implicit disaster insurance, whose coverage increases with maturity implicitly and costs less to optimistic lenders. Using high-resolution sea level...
