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作者：Greenwald, Daniel L.; Lettau, Martin; Ludvigson, Sydney C.
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; New York University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Why does the stock market rise and fall? From 1989 to 2017, the real per capita value of corporate equity increased at a 7.2% annual rate. We estimate that 40% of this increase was attributable to a reallocation of rewards to shareholders in a decelerating economy, primarily at the expense of labor compensation. Economic growth accounted for just 25% of the increase, followed by a lower risk price (21%) and lower interest rates (14%). The period 1952-88 experienced only one-third as much growt...
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作者：Mommaerts, Corina
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper examines whether informal care by family members influences the demand for long-term care insurance. Motivated by evidence that the availability of informal caregivers correlates with lower insurance demand and that informal care substitutes for formal care, I estimate a dynamic model of long-term care decisions between an elderly parent and her adult child. The availability of informal care lowers demand for insurance by 7 percentage points and suppresses Medicaid spending. A polic...
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作者：Daruich, Diego
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：To study long-run large-scale early childhood policies, this paper incorporates early childhood investments into a general equilibrium heterogeneous agent overlapping generations model calibrated using US data. A randomized controlled trial evaluation of a short-run small-scale early childhood program in the model predicts effects on children's education and income that are similar to the empirical evidence. A long-run large-scale program, however, yields over twice as large welfare gains as t...
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作者：Londono-Velez, Juliana; Rodriguez, Catherine; Sanchez, Fabio; Alvarez-Arango, Luis Esteban
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universidad de los Andes (Colombia); University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We study the impact of financial aid on upward mobility. We estimate the causal impacts of a Colombian policy targeting high-achieving, low-socioeconomic-status students on later-life educational and labor market outcomes. Using regression discontinuity design, difference-in-differences, and population-wide administrative microdata, we find that the policy boosted attendance and completion at high-value-added colleges, particularly in STEM fields. Improved college quality led to greater skill ...
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作者：Posch, Max; Schulz, Jonathan; Henrich, Joseph
作者单位：University of Exeter; George Mason University; Harvard University
摘要：This paper examines the impact of cultural diversity on innovation. Focusing on the United States from 1850 to 1940, we develop a novel surname-based measure of cultural diversity and combine this with patent data. Leveraging quasi-random variation in counties' surname compositions driven by historical immigration, we find that rising diversity increased both the quantity and the quality of innovation within counties and for individual inventors. Examining mechanisms, we provide evidence sugge...
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作者：Lin, Zhongjian; Vella, Francis
作者单位：University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; Georgetown University
摘要：We address the estimation of endogenous treatment models with social interactions in both the treatment and outcome equations. We model the interactions between individuals via a game theoretic approach based on discrete Bayesian games. We employ a nested pseudo joint likelihood algorithm when obtaining the model's parameters and provide relevant treatment effects and procedures for their estimation. Our empirical application examines the impact of an individual's exercise frequency on their l...
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作者：Deserranno, Erika; Caria, A. Stefano; Kastrau, Philipp; Leon-Ciliotta, Gianmarco
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of Warwick; Barcelona School of Economics; Pompeu Fabra University
摘要：Does the allocation of incentives across the hierarchy of an organization matter for its performance? In an experiment with a large public health organization, we find that health care provision is highly affected by how incentives are allocated between frontline workers and their supervisors. Sharing incentives equally between these two layers raises health visits by 61% compared with unilateral allocations and uniquely improves health service provision and health outcomes. We provide reduced...
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作者：Atalay, Enghin; Frost, Erika; Sorensen, Alan; Sullivan, Christopher; Zhu, Wanjia
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Calgary
摘要：We study changes in markups across 70 product markets from 2006 to 2018. A growing literature has documented rising markups using a production function approach. We instead estimate demand and invert firms' first-order pricing conditions to infer markups. To make the method scalable, we propose estimating nested logit demand models using household panel data to automate the assignment of products to nests. We find an overall upward trend in markups, with considerable heterogeneity across and w...
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作者：Capatina, Elena; Keane, Michael
作者单位：Australian National University; Johns Hopkins University; University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：We develop a life-cycle model of labor supply and human capital formation that incorporates health shocks, health insurance, and medical treatment decisions. We use the model to study effects of health shocks on health, labor supply, earnings, and earnings inequality. We also simulate provision of public insurance to agents who lack employer-sponsored insurance. While this increases medical spending substantially, it creates positive labor supply incentives for low-skill workers while reducing...
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作者：Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc; Preston, Bruce
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Barclays; University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：This paper provides theory and evidence that distorted long-term interest rate expectations limit the effectiveness of monetary policy. Beliefs that depart from rational expectations break the tight link between policy rates and long-term interest rates, even when determined by the expectations hypothesis of the yield curve. Because long-term expectations are excessively sensitive to short-term interest rates, optimal policy is less aggressive relative to rational expectations. More aggressive...
