The Short-Run Policy Constraints of Long-Run Expectations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc; Preston, Bruce
• 署名单位: University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Barclays; University of New South Wales Sydney
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/738335
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: optimal monetary-policy; Central bank communication; regime switches; interest-rates; inflation; INFORMATION; sensitivity; agents; shocks; rules

摘要

This paper provides theory and evidence that distorted long-term interest rate expectations limit the effectiveness of monetary policy. Beliefs that depart from rational expectations break the tight link between policy rates and long-term interest rates, even when determined by the expectations hypothesis of the yield curve. Because long-term expectations are excessively sensitive to short-term interest rates, optimal policy is less aggressive relative to rational expectations. More aggressive policy leads to suboptimal volatility in long-term interest rates and aggregate demand through standard intertemporal substitution effects. These effects are quantitatively important in the United States over the postwar period.