Journal of Political Economy

最新文章

• Are Tax Cuts Contractionary at the Zero Lower Bound? Evidence from a Century of Data AI翻译
  作者：Cloyne, James; Dimsdale, Nicholas; Huertgen, Patrick
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Oxford; Deutsche Bundesbank
  摘要：Popular New Keynesian macroeconomic models predict that cuts in various types of distortionary taxes are contractionary when monetary policy is constrained at the zero lower bound (ZLB). We turn to a long span of history in the United Kingdom to test this hypothesis. Using a new long-run dataset of narrative-identified tax changes from 1918 to 2020, we show that tax cuts are expansionary in both low-interest-rate environments and more normal times. We do not find evidence of a deflationary spi...
• Borda's Rule and Arrow's Independence Condition AI翻译
  作者：Maskin, Eric
  作者单位：Harvard University
  摘要：We argue that Arrow's independence of irrelevant alternatives condition (IIA) is unjustifiably stringent because it rules out making a social welfare function sensitive to individuals' preference intensities. Accordingly, we propose a modified version of IIA, MIIA, that is a necessary and sufficient relaxation of IIA for taking account of intensities. Rather than obtaining an impossibility result, we show that MIIA together with several other axioms (satisfied by virtually all voting rules and...
• Exchange Rates and Asset Prices in a Global Demand System AI翻译
  作者：Koijen, Ralph S. J.; Yogo, Motohiro
  作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Princeton University
  摘要：We develop an asset demand system to analyze the equilibrium relation between international portfolio holdings and flows, exchange rates, and asset prices across all countries. We introduce a nested logit model of asset demand, for which we develop a new identification strategy by instrumental variables. Averaged across years and issuer countries, the demand elasticities are 27.9 for short-term debt, 3.2 for long-term debt, and 1.2 for equity. These demand elasticities are empirical targets fo...
• The Gas Trap: Outcompeting Coal versus Renewables AI翻译
  作者：Harstad, Bard; Holtsmark, Katinka
  作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Oslo
  摘要：We analyze a fundamental dilemma and time-inconsistency problem facing climate-concerned producers of natural gas. In the short term, it is tempting to produce more to outcompete coal. When this policy is anticipated, however, investments in renewables fall and emissions may ultimately increase. When the gas producers cannot precommit, their policies can be counterproductive. A simulated version applied to Europe verifies that the gas trap is quantitatively important. We discuss the robustness...
• Exorbitant Privilege Gained and Lost: Fiscal Implications AI翻译
  作者：Chen, Zefeng; Jiang, Zhengyang; Lustig, Hanno; Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn; Xiaolan, Mindy Z.
  作者单位：Peking University; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; Stanford University; Columbia University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
  摘要：We study three centuries of fiscal history. Dominant safe asset suppliers issue more debt than future primary surpluses can justify, even after accounting for seigniorage revenue from convenience yields. This pattern holds for the Dutch Republic (seventeenth to eighteenth centuries), the United Kingdom (eighteenth to nineteenth centuries), and the United States (twentieth to twenty-first centuries). When Dutch and UK fiscal fundamentals deteriorated, they lost their dominant position as the sa...
• Distribution Regression with Sample Selection and UK Wage Decomposition AI翻译
  作者：Chernozhukov, Victor; Fernandez-Val, Ivan; Luo, Siyi
  作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Boston University
  摘要：We develop a distribution regression model under endogenous sample selection. This model is a semiparametric generalization of the Heckman selection model, which accommodates much richer patterns of heterogeneity in the effect of covariates and selection process and allows for departures from Gaussian errors while maintaining the same level of tractability. The model applies to continuous, discrete, and mixed outcomes. We provide identification, estimation, and inference methods and apply them...
• Factor Models for Conditional Asset Pricing AI翻译
  作者：Zaffaroni, Paolo
  作者单位：Imperial College London
  摘要：This paper develops a methodology, building on a local principal component analysis approach, for inference on the pricing ability of conditional asset pricing models designed to mitigate the effect of omitted risk factors and misspecified conditional dynamics. The methodology is designed to exploit the rich information available in large cross sections of individual stocks. Monte Carlo experiments and an empirical application demonstrate the benefits of this methodology over existing approach...
• Policy Experimentation in China: The Political Economy of Policy Learning AI翻译
  作者：Wang, Shaoda; Yang, David Y.
  作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR)
  摘要：Governments use policy experiments to facilitate learning, but the nature and effects of these experiments remain unclear. We analyze China's policy experimentation since 1980-among the most systematic in history-and document three facts. First, most experiments exhibit positive sample selection. Second, local politicians exert excessive efforts during experiments that are not replicable during policies' national rollout. Third, the central government is not fully sophisticated when interpreti...
• Policy Uncertainty in the Market for Coal Electricity: The Case of Air Toxics Standards AI翻译
  作者：Gowrisankaran, Gautam; Langer, Ashley; Zhang, Wendan
  作者单位：Columbia University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Arizona; Renmin University of China
  摘要：Government policy uncertainty affects irreversible decisions including technology adoption and exit. This paper quantifies uncertainty surrounding the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS). We estimate a dynamic oligopoly model for coal-fired electricity generators that recovers generators' beliefs regarding future MATS enforcement. We develop the approximate belief oligopoly equilibrium concept, where players understand that their decisions impact aggregate market states. MATS enforcement c...
• Estimating the Technology of Children's Skill Formation AI翻译
  作者：Agostinelli, Francesco; Wiswall, Matthew
  作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; Johns Hopkins University
  摘要：In this paper, we study the process of children's skill formation using a dynamic latent factor model to identify key features of the skill production function. We develop and estimate a joint dynamic process for latent investment and skill development, incorporating both static and dynamic complementarities between parental investments and children's skills in the technology of skill formation. Our analysis of US data reveals that early childhood investments (age 5-6) are highly effective for...