Environmental Consequences of Hydrocarbon Infrastructure Policy

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Covert, Thomas R.; Kellogg, Ryan
• 署名单位: Airbnb; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/742713
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: gas development; OIL; transmission; emissions

摘要

We study policies that aim to keep carbon in the ground by blocking fossil fuel infrastructure investment. Our analysis relies on a model of hydrocarbon production and transportation, incorporating substitution between pipeline infrastructure and flexible alternatives, like crude-by-rail. We apply the model to the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL), which moves oil from North Dakota to Texas and was controversially completed in 2017. Had DAPL's construction been enjoined, we estimate that 82% of the blocked pipeline flows would move by rail instead. This substitution induces both private costs and local environmental damage, since rail transport imposes greater local externalities than pipelines.