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作者：Amador, Manuel; Phelan, Christopher
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper presents a continuous-time model of sovereign debt. In it, a relatively impatient sovereign government's hidden type switches back and forth between a commitment type, which cannot default, and an opportunistic type, which can, and where we assume outside lenders have particular beliefs regarding how a commitment type should borrow for any given level of debt and bond price. In any Markov equilibrium, the opportunistic type mimics the commitment type when borrowing, revealing its ty...
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作者：Eeckhout, Jan
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; ICREA
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作者：Jarosch, Gregor; Oberfield, Ezra; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban
作者单位：Princeton University; Princeton University
摘要：We investigate learning at the workplace. To do so, we use German administrative data that contain information on the entire workforce of a sample of establishments. We document that having more-highly-paid coworkers is strongly associated with future wage growth, particularly if those workers earn more. Motivated by this fact, we propose a dynamic theory of a competitive labor market where firms produce using teams of heterogeneous workers that learn from each other. We develop a methodology ...
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作者：Montiel Olea, Jose Luis; Plagborg-Moller, Mikkel
作者单位：Columbia University; Princeton University
摘要：Applied macroeconomists often compute confidence intervals for impulse responses using local projections, that is, direct linear regressions of future outcomes on current covariates. This paper proves that local projection inference robustly handles two issues that commonly arise in applications: highly persistent data and the estimation of impulse responses at long horizons. We consider local projections that control for lags of the variables in the regression. We show that lag-augmented loca...
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作者：Newton, Jonathan
作者单位：Kyoto University
摘要：Lemma 1 of Ray and Vohra (2019) is false as stated, but holds under alternative conditions which are consistent with the ideas of coalitional sovereignty that motivate the cited paper.
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作者：Di Tillio, Alfredo; Ottaviani, Marco; Sorensen, Peter Norman
作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University; University of Copenhagen
摘要：Are the highest sample realizations selected from a larger presample more or less informative than the same amount of random data? Developing multivariate accuracy for interval dominance ordered preferences, we show that sample selection always benefits (or always harms) a decision maker if the reverse hazard rate of the data distribution is log-supermodular (or log-submodular), as in location experiments with normal noise. We find nonpathological conditions under which the information contain...
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作者：Handbury, Jessie
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：This paper shows that the products and prices offered in markets are correlated with local income-specific tastes. To quantify the welfare impact of this variation, I calculate local price indexes micro-founded by a model of non-homothetic demand over thousands of grocery products. These indexes reveal large differences in how wealthy and poor households perceive the choice sets available in wealthy and poor cities. Relative to low-income households, high-income households enjoy 40 percent hig...
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作者：Rostek, Marzena; Yoon, Ji Hee
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of London; University College London
摘要：Most assets clear independently rather than jointly. This paper presents a model based on the uniform-price double auction which accommodates arbitrary restrictions on market clearing, including independent clearing across assets (allowed when demand for each asset is contingent only on the price of that asset) and joint market clearing for all assets (required when demand for each asset is contingent on the prices of all assets). Additional trading protocols for traded assets-neutral when the...
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作者：Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; Primiceri, Giorgio E.
作者单位：Amazon.com; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We compare sparse and dense representations of predictive models in macroeconomics, microeconomics, and finance. To deal with a large number of possible predictors, we specify a prior that allows for both variable selection and shrinkage. The posterior distribution does not typically concentrate on a single sparse model, but on a wide set of models that often include many predictors.
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作者：Chakraborty, Anujit
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：Present bias is the inclination to prefer a smaller present reward to a larger later reward, but reversing this preference when both rewards are equally delayed. Such behavior violates stationarity of temporal choices, and hence exponential discounting. This paper provides a weakening of the stationarity axiom that can accommodate present-biased choice reversals. We call this new behavioral postulate Weak Present Bias and characterize the general class of utility functions that is consistent w...
