On the Factor Structure of Bond Returns

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Crump, Richard K.; Gospodinov, Nikolay
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA17943
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 295-314
• 关键词: term structure; interest-rates; eigenvalues; models; number

摘要

We demonstrate that characterizing the minimal dimension of the term structure of interest rates is more challenging than currently appreciated. The highly structured polynomial patterns of the factor loadings, which are widely reported and discussed in the literature, reflect local correlations of smooth curves across maturities. We derive analytical expressions for the loadings of cross-sectionally dependent processes that tend to favor a much lower dimension than the true dimension of the underlying factor space. Numerical examples illustrate the significant economic costs of erroneously committing to a parsimoniously parameterized factor space that is informed by standard metrics of goodness-of-fit. Our results apply to other assets with a finite maturity structure.