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作者：Deryugina, Tatyana; Heutel, Garth; Miller, Nolan H.; Molitor, David; Reif, Julian
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University System of Georgia; Georgia State University
摘要：We estimate the causal effects of acute fine particulate matter exposure on mortality, health care use, and medical costs among the US elderly using Medicare data. We instrument for air pollution using changes in local wind direction and develop a new approach that uses machine learning to estimate the life-years lost due to pollution exposure. Finally, we characterize treatment effect heterogeneity using both life expectancy and generic machine learning inference. Both approaches find that mo...
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作者：Faber, Benjamin; Gaubert, Cecile
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Tourism is a fast-growing services sector in developing countries. This paper combines a rich collection of Mexican microdata with a quantitative spatial equilibrium model and a new empirical strategy to study the long-term economic consequences of tourism both locally and in the aggregate. We find that tourism causes large and significant local economic gains relative to less touristic regions that are in part driven by significant positive spillovers on manufacturing. In the aggregate, howev...
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作者：Nordhaus, William
作者单位：Yale University
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作者：Freyaldenhoven, Simon; Hansen, Christian; Shapiro, Jesse M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of Chicago; Brown University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We consider a linear panel event-study design in which unobserved confounds may be related both to the outcome and to the policy variable of interest. We provide sufficient conditions to identify the causal effect of the policy by exploiting covariates related to the policy only through the confounds. Our model implies a set of moment equations that are linear in parameters. The effect of the policy can be estimated by 2SLS, and causal inference is valid even when endogeneity leads to pre-even...
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作者：Lieber, Ethan M. J.; Lockwood, Lee M.
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Making a transfer in kind reduces its value to recipients but can improve targeting. We develop an approach to quantiffing this trade-off and apply it to home care. Using randomized experiments by Medicaid, we find that in-kind provision significantly reduces the value of the transfer to recipients while targeting a small fraction of the eligible population that is sicker and has fewer informal care-givers than the average eligible. Under a wide range of assumptions within a standard model, th...
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作者：Gathergood, John; Mahoney, Neale; Stewart, Neil; Weber, Jorg
作者单位：University of Nottingham; University of Chicago; University of Warwick
摘要：We study how individuals repay their debt using linked data on multiple credit cards. Repayments are not allocated to the higher interest rate card, which would minimize the cost of borrowing. Moreover, the degree of misallocation is invariant to the economic stakes, which is inconsistent with optimization frictions. Instead, we show that repayments are consistent with a balance-matchingheuristic under which the share of repayments on each card is matched to the share of balances on each card....
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作者：Davis, Donald R.; Dingel, Jonathan I.
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：Leading empiricists and theorists of cities have recently argued that the generation and exchange of ideas must play a more central role in the analysis of cities. This paper develops the first system of cities model with costly idea exchange as the agglomeration force. The model replicates a broad set of established facts about the cross section of cities. It provides the first spatial equilibrium theory of why skill premia are higher in larger cities and how variation in these premia emerges...
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作者：Dal Bo, Pedro; Frechette, Guillaume
作者单位：Brown University; New York University
摘要：We use a novel experimental design to reliably elicit subjects' strategies in an infinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma experiment with perfect monitoring. We find that three simple strategies represent the majority of the chosen strategies: Always Defect, Tit-for-Tat, and Grim. In addition, we identify how the strategies systematically vary with the parameters of the game. Finally, we use the elicited strategies to test the ability to recover strategies using statistical methods based on obse...
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作者：Che, Yeon-Koo; Mierendorff, Konrad
作者单位：Columbia University; University of London; University College London
摘要：We consider a decision maker (DM) who, before taking an action, seeks information by allocating her limited attention dynamically over different news sources that are biased toward alternative actions. Endogenous choice of information generates rich dynamics: the chosen news source either reinforces or weakens the prior, shaping subsequent attention choices, belief updating, and the final action. The DM adopts a learning strategy biased toward the current belief when the belief is extreme and ...
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作者：Lin, Tse-Chun; Liu, Qi; Sun, Bo
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; Peking University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We study the effect of financial market frictions on managerial compensation. We embed a market microstructure model into an otherwise standard contracting framework, and analyze optimal pay for-performance when managers use information they learn from the market in their investment decisions. In a less frictional market, the improved information content of stock prices helps guide manage-rial decisions and thereby necessitates lower-powered compensation. Exploiting a randomized experiment, we...
