The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Deryugina, Tatyana; Heutel, Garth; Miller, Nolan H.; Molitor, David; Reif, Julian
• 署名单位: University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University System of Georgia; Georgia State University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20180279
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 4178-4219
• 关键词: fine particulate matter; avoidance-behavior; blood-pressure; DID MEDICARE; LIFE LOST; HEALTH; IMPACT; association; INFORMATION; urban

摘要

We estimate the causal effects of acute fine particulate matter exposure on mortality, health care use, and medical costs among the US elderly using Medicare data. We instrument for air pollution using changes in local wind direction and develop a new approach that uses machine learning to estimate the life-years lost due to pollution exposure. Finally, we characterize treatment effect heterogeneity using both life expectancy and generic machine learning inference. Both approaches find that mortality effects are concentrated in about 25 percent of the elderly population.