-
作者：Bauer, Michael D.; Rudebusch, Glenn D.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：Macro finance theory implies that trend inflation and the equilibrium real interest rate are fundamental determinants of the yield curve. However, empirical models of the term structure of interest rates generally assume that these fundamentals are constant. We show that accounting for time variation in these underlying long-run trends is crucial for understanding the dynamics of Treasury yields and predicting excess bond returns. We introduce a new arbitrage-free model that captures the key r...
-
作者：Baranov, Victoria; Bhalotra, Sonia; Biroli, Pietro; Maselko, Joanna
作者单位：University of Melbourne; University of Essex; University of Zurich; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
摘要：We evaluate the medium-term impacts of treating maternal depression on women's mental health, financial empowerment, and parenting decisions. We leverage variation induced by a cluster-randomized controlled trial that provided psychotherapy to 903 prenatally depressed mothers in rural Pakistan. It was one of the world's largest psych-otherapy interventions, and it dramatically reduced postpartum depression. Seven years after psychotherapy concluded, we returned to the study site to find that i...
-
作者：Sanktjohanser, Anna
作者单位：Yale University
摘要：I consider a repeated game in which, due to imperfect monitoring, no collusion can be sustained. I add a self- interested monitor who commits to obtain private signals of firms' actions and sends a public message. The monitor makes an offer specifying the precision of the signals obtained and the amount to be paid in return. First, with a low monitoring cost, collusive equilibria exist. Second, collusive equilibria are monitor-preferred. Third, in monitor-preferred equilibria, firms' payoffs a...
-
作者：Mueller, Andreas; Storesletten, Kjetil; Zilibotti, Fabrizio
作者单位：University of Essex; University of Oslo; Yale University
摘要：We construct a dynamic theory of sovereign debt and structural reforms with limited enforcement and moral hazard. A sovereign country in recession wishes to smooth consumption. It can also undertake costly reforms to speed up recovery. The sovereign can renege on contracts by suffering a stochastic cost. The constrained optimal allocation (COA) prescribes imperfect insurance with non-monotonic dynamics for consumption and effort. The COA is decentralized by a competitive equilibrium with marke...
-
作者：Aghion, Philippe; Bergeaud, Antonin; Boppart, Timo; Klenow, Peter J.; Li, Huiyu
作者单位：Universite PSL; College de France; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; European Central Bank; Bank of France; Stockholm University; Stanford University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：For exiting products, statistical agencies often impute inflation from surviving products. This understates growth if creatively-destroyed products improve more than surviving ones. If so, then the market share of surviving products should systematically shrink. Using entering and exiting establishments to proxy for creative destruction, we estimate missing growth in US Census data on non farm businesses from 1983 to 2013. We find missing growth (i) equaled about one-half a percentage point pe...
-
作者：Schilbach, Frank
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper studies alcohol consumption among low-income workers in India. In a 3-week field experiment, the majority of 229 cycle-rickshaw drivers were willing to forgo substantial monetary payments in order to set incentives for themselves to remain sober, thus exhibiting demand for commitment to sobriety. Randomly receiving sobriety incentives significantly reduced daytime drinking while leaving overall drinking unchanged. I find no evidence of higher daytime sobriety significantly changing ...
-
作者：Doepke, Matthias; Kindermann, Fabian
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of Regensburg
摘要：It takes a woman and a man to make a baby. This fact suggests that for a birth to take place, the parents should first agree on wanting a child. Using newly available data on fertility preferences and outcomes, we show that indeed, babies are likely to arrive only if both parents desire one. In addition, there are many couples who disagree on having babies, and in low-fertility countries women are much more likely than men to be opposed to having another child. We account for this evidence wit...
-
作者：Elias, Julio J.; Lacetera, Nicola; Macis, Mario
作者单位：University of Toronto; University Toronto Mississauga; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：We conducted a randomized survey with 2,666 US residents to study preferences for legalizing payments to kidney donors. We found strong polarization, with many participants supporting or opposing payments regardless of potential transplant gains. However, about 18 percent of respondents would switch to favoring payments for sufficiently large increases in transplants. Preferences for compensation have strong moral foundations; participants especially reject direct payments by patients, which t...
-
作者：Fornaro, Luca; Romei, Federica
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：This paper describes a paradox of global thrift. Consider a world in which interest rates are low and monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound. Now imagine that governments implement prudential financial and fiscal policies to stabilize the economy. We show that these policies, while effective from the perspective of individual countries, might backfire if applied on a global scale. In fact, prudential policies generate a rise in the global supply of savings and a drop in global ...
-
作者：Lustig, Hanno; Verdelhan, Adrien
作者单位：Stanford University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We assume that domestic (foreign) agents, when investing abroad, can only trade in the foreign (domestic) risk-free rates. In a preference-free environment, we derive the exchange rate volatility and risk premia in any such incomplete spanning model, as well as a measure of exchange rate cyclicality. We find that incomplete spanning lowers the volatility of exchange rate, increases the risk premia but only by creating exchange rate predictability, and does not affect the exchange rate cyclical...
