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作者：Terry, Stephen J.; Chaney, Thomas; Burchardi, Konrad B.; Tarquinio, Lisa; Hassan, Tarek A.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Southern California; Western University (University of Western Ontario); Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We propose a novel identification strategy to isolate exogenous immigration shocks across US counties, by interacting quasi-random variations in the composition of ancestry across counties with the contemporaneous inflow of migrants from different countries. We show a positive causal impact of immigration on local innovation and wages at the five-year horizon. The positive dynamic impact of immigration on innovation and wages dominates the short-run negative impact of increased labor supply. A...
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作者：Dupas, Pascaline; Handlan, Amy; Modestino, Alicia Sasser; Niederle, Muriel; Sere, Mateo; Sheng, Haoyu; Wolfers, Justin
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; University College London; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We assess whether men and women are treated differently when presenting their economics research. We collected data across thousands of seminars, job market talks, and conference presentations, leveraging human judgment and audio-processing algorithms to measure the number, tone, and type of interruptions. Within a seminar series, women are interrupted more than men. This holds when controlling for characteristics of the presenter, paper, and audience. Interruptions that are negative in tenor ...
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作者：Gupta, Arpit; Mittal, Vrinda; Van Nieuwerburgh, Stun
作者单位：New York University; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina School of Medicine; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We show remote work led to large drops in lease revenues, occupancy, and market rents in the commercial office sector. We revalue New York City office buildings, taking into account both the cash flow and discount rate implications of these shocks, and find a 46 percent decline in long-run value. For all US office markets combined, we find a $556.8 billion value destruction. Higher-quality buildings were buffered against these trends due to a flight to quality, while lower-quality offices are ...
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作者：Braxton, J. Carter; Herkenhoff, Kyle; Rothbaum, Jonathan; Schmidt, Lawrence
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：For whom has earnings risk changed, and why? We answer these questions by combining the Kalman filter and EM algorithm to estimate persistent and temporary earnings for every individual at every point in time. We apply our method to administrative earnings linked with survey data. We show that since the 1980s, persistent earnings risk rose by 12.5 percent for both employed and unemployed workers and the scarring effects of unemployment doubled. At the same time, temporary earnings risk decline...
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作者：Alvarez, Fernando; Borovickova, Katarina; Shimer, Robert
作者单位：University of Chicago; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We develop a linear GMM estimator of the discrete-time mixed proportional hazard (MPH) model of duration with an arbitrary distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We allow for competing risks, observable characteristics, and censoring. We prove our estimator is consistent and apply it to the duration of price spells. We find substantial unobserved heterogeneity with economically meaningful implications for the response of output to a monetary policy shock in a model with time-dependent prici...
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作者：Alfano, Marco; Cornelissen, Thomas
作者单位：University of Southampton; University of Essex
摘要：Conflict along transportation routes during Somalia's al-Shabaab insurgency significantly increases maize prices at distant locations, decreasing food security, health, and education. Estimated conflict risk has strong price effects independently of realized conflict, highlighting the importance of safety concerns. A model of least-cost route choice in the presence of conflict reveals that more and shorter alternative routes to circumvent conflict can lower prices but their effectiveness dimin...
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作者：Montag, Felix
作者单位：New York University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Policy choices often create trade-offs between workers and consumers. I examine how foreign competition alters the consumer welfare and domestic employment effects of mergers. I construct a model incorporating consumer demand, endogenous product portfolios, and employment decisions. Applying the model to Whirlpool's acquisition of Maytag in the appliance industry, I compare the observed merger to a counterfactual acquisition by a foreign buyer. Although Whirlpool's acquisition decreased consum...
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作者：Schaede, Ursina; Mankki, Ville
作者单位：Tufts University; University of Jyvaskyla
摘要：We evaluate equity-efficiency trade-offs from admissions quotas by examining effects on output once beneficiaries start producing in the relevant industry. We estimate the impact of abolishing a 40 percent quota for male primary school teachers on their pupils' long-run outcomes. We combine this reform with the timing of union-bargained teacher retirements to isolate quasi-random variation in male quota teachers. Pupils exposed to male quota teachers transition more smoothly to postcompulsory ...
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作者：Kumar, Noor; Lee, Uyseok; Lowe, Matt; Ogunnote, Olaitan
作者单位：University of British Columbia
摘要：Weekly lotteries determine which politicians ask the UK prime minister a question in front of a male-dominated, noisy chamber. Lottery winners receive 4 percent higher vote margin in the next election, but women are 12 percent less likely to submit questions than same-cohort men. The gender gap does not close with lottery-induced experience asking a question, but it closes after a format change, with questions asked to a smaller, quieter audience. The switch differentially draws in women with ...
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作者：Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; Shleifer, Andrei; Terry, Stephen J.
作者单位：University of Oxford; Bocconi University; Harvard University
摘要：We embed diagnostic expectations in a workhorse neoclassical model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of overreaction estimated from US firms' earnings forecasts generates realistic credit cycles. Good times produce economic and financial fragility, predicting future disappointment of expectations, low bond returns, and investment declines. To generate the size of spread increases observed during 2007-2009, the model requires only moderate negative shocks. Diagnostic e...
