Spatial Spillovers of Conflict in Somalia

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Alfano, Marco; Cornelissen, Thomas
• 署名单位: University of Southampton; University of Essex
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282; 1944-7981
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20231699
• 发表日期: 2026-06
• 页码: 2166-2201
• 关键词: VIOLENT CONFLICT; civil conflict; armed conflict; child health; food-prices; IMPACT; WAR; TRADE; police; crime

摘要

Conflict along transportation routes during Somalia's al-Shabaab insurgency significantly increases maize prices at distant locations, decreasing food security, health, and education. Estimated conflict risk has strong price effects independently of realized conflict, highlighting the importance of safety concerns. A model of least-cost route choice in the presence of conflict reveals that more and shorter alternative routes to circumvent conflict can lower prices but their effectiveness diminishes as violence becomes more correlated across routes. Alternatively, securing key transportation routes would alleviate price increases. A market access approach suggests spatial spillovers of conflict also matter for prices of more general baskets of food and nonfood items. (JEL D74, I15, I25, O15, O17, Q11, R41)