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作者：Ba, Cuimin
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh
摘要：This paper studies which misspecified models are likely to persist when decision-makers compare them with competing models. The main result characterizes such models based on two features that can be derived from primitives: The model's asymptotic accuracy in predicting the equilibrium distribution of observed outcomes and the tightness of the prior around such equilibria. Misspecified models can be robust, persisting against any arbitrary competing model-including the true model-despite decis...
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作者：Chyn, Eric; Daruich, Diego
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Southern California
摘要：This paper studies housing vouchers and urban redevelopment programs by incorporating neighborhood effects into a general equilibrium overlapping-generations model with endogenous location choice and child development. We calibrate the model using US data and estimate impacts of large-scale implementations of rental voucher and place-based subsidy policies. Our core finding is that vouchers generate long-run welfare gains by reducing inequality and generating skill improvements that offset hig...
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作者：Szeidl, Adam; Szucs, Ferenc
摘要：We model populism as the dissemination of a false alternative reality, according to which the intellectual elite conspires against the populist for purely ideological reasons. If enough voters are receptive to it, this alternative reality-by discrediting the elite's truthful message-reduces political accountability. Elite criticism, because it is more consistent with the alternative reality, strengthens receptive voters' support for the populist. Alternative realities are endogenously conspira...
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作者：Antolin-Diaz, Juan; Surico, Paolo
作者单位：University of London; London Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Military spending has large and persistent effects on output because it shifts the composition of public spending toward R&D. This boosts innovation and private investment in the medium term and increases productivity and GDP at longer horizons. Public R&D expenditure stimulates economic activities beyond the business cycle even when it is not associated with war spending. In contrast, the effects of public investment are shorter-lived, while public consumption has a modest impact at most hori...
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作者：Haddad, Valentin; Moreira, Alan; Muir, Tyler
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Rochester
摘要：At the announcement of a new policy, agents form a view of state-contingent policy actions and impact. We develop a method to estimate this state-contingent perception and implement it for many asset-purchase interventions worldwide. Expectations of larger support in bad states-policy puts-explain a large fraction of the announcements' impact. For example, when the Fed introduced purchases of corporate bonds in March 2020, markets expected five times more price support had conditions worsened ...
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作者：Heimer, Rawley; Iliewa, Zwetelina; Imas, Alex; Weber, Martin
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; University of Bonn; University of Chicago; University of Mannheim
摘要：We document a robust dynamic inconsistency in risky choice. Using a unique brokerage dataset and a series of experiments, we compare people's initial risk-taking plans to their subsequent decisions. Across settings, people accept risk as part of a loss-exit strategy-planning to continue taking risk after gains and stopping after losses. Actual behavior deviates from initial strategies by cutting gains early and chasing losses. More people accept risk when offered a commitment to their initial ...
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作者：Ager, Philipp; Goni, Marc; Salvanes, Kjell G.
作者单位：University of Mannheim; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Bergen; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：This paper studies how gender-biased technological change in agriculture affected women's work in twentieth-century Norway. In the 1950s, dairy farms began widely adopting milking machines to replace milking cows by hand, a task typically performed by young women. We show that the machines pushed rural young women in dairy-intensive areas out of farming. The displaced women moved to cities where they acquired more education and found better-paying, skilled employment. Our results suggest that ...
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作者：Bucher-Koenen, Tabea; Hackethal, Andreas; Koenen, Johannes; Laudenbach, Christine
作者单位：Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW); University of Mannheim; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：Based on data gathered from 27,000 real-world meetings between financial advisors and clients of a large German bank, we show that advisors offer more self-serving advice to women, while men are more likely to receive sales fee rebates and less likely to be recommended expensive in-house multi-asset (IHMA) funds. Additional client and advisor surveys provide evidence consistent with statistical discrimination based on gender as a proxy for client financial sophistication, with female clients e...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：This paper reviews the main motivations and arguments of my work on comparative development, colonialism, and institutional change, which was often carried out jointly with James Robinson and Simon Johnson. I then provide a simple framework to organize these ideas and connect them with my research on innovation and technology. The framework is centered around a utility-technology possibilities frontier, which delineates the possible distributions of resources in a society both for given techno...
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作者：Boudreau, Laura; Macchiavello, Rocco; Minni, Virginia; Tanaka, Mari
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Chicago; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Tokyo; Hitotsubashi University
摘要：Social movements are catalysts for crucial institutional changes. To succeed, they must coordinate members' views (consensus building) and actions (mobilization). We study union leaders within Myanmar's burgeoning labor movement. Union leaders are positively selected on both ability and personality traits that enable them to influence others, yet they earn lower wages. In group discussions about workers'views on an upcoming national minimum wage negotiation, randomly embedded leaders build con...
