Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Braxton, J. Carter; Herkenhoff, Kyle; Rothbaum, Jonathan; Schmidt, Lawrence
• 署名单位: University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282; 1944-7981
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20231656
• 发表日期: 2025-12
• 页码: 4438-4475
• 关键词: technological-change; earnings; INEQUALITY; DYNAMICS; consumption; GROWTH; COMPLEMENTARITY; volatility; recessions; computers

摘要

For whom has earnings risk changed, and why? We answer these questions by combining the Kalman filter and EM algorithm to estimate persistent and temporary earnings for every individual at every point in time. We apply our method to administrative earnings linked with survey data. We show that since the 1980s, persistent earnings risk rose by 12.5 percent for both employed and unemployed workers and the scarring effects of unemployment doubled. At the same time, temporary earnings risk declined. Using education and occupation codes, we show that rising persistent earnings risk is concentrated among high-skill workers and related to technology adoption.