Temporary Layoffs, Loss-of-Recall, and Cyclical Unemployment Dynamics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gertler, Mark; Huckfeldt, Christopher; Trigari, Antonella
• 署名单位: New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Bocconi University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Bocconi University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282; 1944-7981
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20220749
• 发表日期: 2026-03
• 页码: 862-896
• 关键词: fluctuations; Covid-19; BEHAVIOR

摘要

We revisit the role of temporary layoffs in the business cycle. While some have emphasized a stabilizing effect due to recall hiring, we quantify from the data an important countercyclical destabilizing effect due to loss-of-recall, whereby workers in temporary-layoff unemployment lose their job permanently. We develop a quantitative model allowing for endogenous flows of workers across employment and both temporary-layoff and jobless unemployment. The model captures both pre-and post-pandemic unemployment dynamics, including the contractionary role of loss-of-recall. We use our structural model to show that the Paycheck Protection Program generated sizable employment gains, in part by significantly reducing loss-of-recall. (JEL E24, E32, I12, J41, J63, J64)