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作者：Cohen, Shani; Li, Shengwu
作者单位：Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Harvard University
摘要：We propose an extensive-form solution concept, with players who neglect information from hypothetical events but make inferences from observed events. Our concept modifies cursed equilibrium (Eyster and Rabin 2005) and allows that players can be cursed about endogenous information. (JEL C73, D44, D71, D81, D83, D91)
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作者：Federle, Jonathan; Meier, Andre; Muller, Gernot J.; Mutschler, Willi; Schularick, Moritz
作者单位：Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We assemble a new dataset spanning 150 years and 60 countries to study the economic toll of war. A war of average intensity is associated with an output drop of close to 10 percent in the war-site economy, while consumer prices rise by approximately 20 percent. The capital stock, total factor productivity, and equity returns all decline sharply. The economic ramifications of war are not confined to the war site. The evidence points to adverse economic outcomes in other belligerent and third-pa...
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作者：Gertler, Mark; Huckfeldt, Christopher; Trigari, Antonella
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Bocconi University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Bocconi University
摘要：We revisit the role of temporary layoffs in the business cycle. While some have emphasized a stabilizing effect due to recall hiring, we quantify from the data an important countercyclical destabilizing effect due to loss-of-recall, whereby workers in temporary-layoff unemployment lose their job permanently. We develop a quantitative model allowing for endogenous flows of workers across employment and both temporary-layoff and jobless unemployment. The model captures both pre-and post-pandemi...
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作者：Terry, Stephen J.; Chaney, Thomas; Burchardi, Konrad B.; Tarquinio, Lisa; Hassan, Tarek A.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Southern California; Western University (University of Western Ontario); Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We propose a novel identification strategy to isolate exogenous immigration shocks across US counties, by interacting quasi-random variations in the composition of ancestry across counties with the contemporaneous inflow of migrants from different countries. We show a positive causal impact of immigration on local innovation and wages at the five-year horizon. The positive dynamic impact of immigration on innovation and wages dominates the short-run negative impact of increased labor supply. A...
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作者：Dahl, Gordon B.; Knepper, Matthew
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Amazon.com
摘要：Why is workplace sexual harassment chronically underreported? We hypothesize that employers coerce victims into silence through the threat of a retaliatory firing. To test this, we estimate how two external shocks that reduce workers'outside options - unemployment rate increases and sharp cuts to unemployment insurance benefits - affect the selectivity of sexual harassment charges filed with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. We find that both shocks increase selectivity, which impli...
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作者：Horner, Johannes; Samuelson, Larry
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Yale University
摘要：We consider an economy in which long-lived experts are matched with short-lived clients. Experts choose the type of client with whom they match, unobserved by the market. The interaction outcome depends on both the expert's and the client's type. We study the effects of supplying information about otherwise unobservable outcomes, such as medical report cards, to help clients identify better experts. Such information can lead to inefficient matches, as experts reject risky clients to build thei...
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作者：Chinoy, Sahil; Nunn, Nathan; Sequeira, Sandra; Stantcheva, Stefanie
作者单位：Harvard University; University of British Columbia; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We investigate the origins and implications of zero-sum thinking: the belief that gains for one individual or group tend to come at the cost of others. Using a new survey of 20,400 US residents, we measure zero-sum thinking, political preferences, policy views, and a rich array of ancestral information spanning four generations. We find that a more zero-sum mindset is strongly associated with more support for government redistribution, race-and gender-based affirmative action, and more restric...
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作者：Passaro, Diego Gentile; Kojima, Fuhito; Pakzad-Hurson, Bobak
作者单位：University of Tokyo; Brown University
摘要：Equal pay laws increasingly require that workers with different group identities doing similar work are paid equal wages within firm. We study such equal pay for similar work (EPSW) policies theoretically and test our models' predictions empirically using evidence from a 2009 gender-based Chilean EPSW. Under EPSW, firms segregate their workforce by gender. When there are more men than women in a labor market, EPSW increases the gender wage gap. (JEL J16, J31, J38, K31, O15)
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作者：Burlig, Fiona; Jina, Amir; Sudarshan, Anant
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Warwick
摘要：Over 2 billion people lack clean drinking water. Existing solutions face high costs (piped water) or low demand (point-of-use chlorine). Using a 60,000 household cluster-randomized experiment, we test an alternative approach: decentralized treatment and home delivery of clean water to the rural poor. At low prices, take-up exceeds 90 percent, sustained throughout the experiment. High prices reduce take-up but are privately profitable. We experimentally recover revealed-preference measures of v...
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作者：Backer-Peral, Veronica; Hazell, Jonathon; Mian, Atif
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Each month, a fraction of UK property leases are extended by 90 years or more. We construct a new dataset using thousands of these natural experiments since 2000 and estimate the expected long-term housing yield, y * . After remaining steady at around 5 percent, y * starts to decline when the Great Recession hits and reaches a low of 2.7 percent in 2024. The decline is steeper in inelastic markets, while y * remains higher in regions more exposed to long-run climate risk. Our estimate of y * i...
