Dynamics of the Long-Term Housing Yield: Evidence from Natural Experiments

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Backer-Peral, Veronica; Hazell, Jonathon; Mian, Atif
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282; 1944-7981
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20240513
• 发表日期: 2026-03
• 页码: 1014-1051
• 关键词: market; TRENDS

摘要

Each month, a fraction of UK property leases are extended by 90 years or more. We construct a new dataset using thousands of these natural experiments since 2000 and estimate the expected long-term housing yield, y * . After remaining steady at around 5 percent, y * starts to decline when the Great Recession hits and reaches a low of 2.7 percent in 2024. The decline is steeper in inelastic markets, while y * remains higher in regions more exposed to long-run climate risk. Our estimate of y * is updated in real time using public data. (JEL E32, G12, Q54, R31, R38)