Does Local Politics Drive Tropical Land-Use Change? Property-Level Evidence from the Amazon

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Katovich, Erik; Moffette, Fanny
• 署名单位: University of Connecticut; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueaf123
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: deforestation; ECONOMY; governance; green

摘要

Land conversion to agriculture is a defining environmental challenge for tropical regions. We construct a novel panel dataset of land-use changes on the properties of municipal politicians and campaign donors in the Brazilian Amazon to assess channels through which local politics may drive land conversion. Estimating event studies around close mayoral elections, we find that large landholders significantly increase soy cultivation while the candidate they donated to is in office. This suggests that landholders invest in political influence to overcome barriers to agricultural intensification. In turn, mayors who receive landholder donations govern in favour of agriculture-increasing spending on agricultural promotion and distribution of rural credit. While agricultural promotion 'returns the favour' for mayors' donors, it is not precisely targeted. We document large spillovers onto lands not registered to donors, resulting in increased environmental violations in these areas. Results reveal how patronage and special interests drive land-use change in the Amazon.