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作者：He, Zhiguo; Krishnamurthy, Arvind
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University
摘要：We model the dynamics of risk premia during crises in asset markets where the marginal investor is a financial intermediary. Intermediaries face an equity capital constraint. Risk premia rise when the constraint binds, reflecting the capital scarcity. The calibrated model matches the nonlinearity of risk premia during crises and the speed of reversion in risk premia from a crisis back to precrisis levels. We evaluate the effect of three government policies: reducing intermediaries borrowing co...
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作者：Kawai, Kei; Watanabe, Yasutora
作者单位：New York University; Northwestern University
摘要：We estimate a model of strategic voting and quantify the impact it has on election outcomes. Because the model exhibits multiplicity of outcomes, we adopt a set estimator. Using Japanese general-election data, we find a large fraction (63.4 percent, 84.9 percent) of strategic voters, only a small fraction (1.4 percent, 4.2 percent) of whom voted for a candidate other than the one they most preferred (misaligned voting). Existing empirical literature has not distinguished between the two, estim...
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作者：Sims, Christopher A.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：Drastic changes in central bank operations and monetary institutions in recent years have made previously standard approaches to explaining the determination of the price level obsolete. Recent expansions of central bank balance sheets and of the levels of rich-country sovereign debt, as well as the evolving political economy of the European Monetary Union, have made it clear that fiscal policy and monetary policy are intertwined. Our thinking and teaching about inflation, monetary policy, and...
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作者：Hines, James R., Jr.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
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作者：Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Ryan, Stephen P.; Schrimpf, Paul; Cullen, Mark R.
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of British Columbia; Stanford University
摘要：We use employee-level panel data from a single firm to explore the possibility that individuals may select insurance coverage in part based on their anticipated behavioral (moral hazard) response to insurance, a phenomenon we label selection on moral hazard. Using a model of plan choice and medical utilization, we present evidence of heterogenous moral hazard as well as selection on it, and explore some of its implications. For example, we show that, at least in our context, abstracting from s...
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作者：Buonanno, Paolo; Raphael, Steven
作者单位：University of Bergamo; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：In August 2006, the Italian government released one-third of the nation's prison inmates via a national collective pardon. We test for a discontinuous break in national crime rates corresponding to the mass release. We also test for the effect of the return of the incarceration rate to its predicted steady state level on national crime rates. Finally, we exploit regional variation in prison releases based on the province of residence of pardoned inmates. All three sources of variation yield su...
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作者：Schlee, Edward E.
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
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作者：Blundell, Richard; Kristensen, Dennis; Matzkin, Rosa L.
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
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作者：Bartelsman, Eric; Haltiwanger, John; Scarpetta, Stefano
作者单位：Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research; Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD)
摘要：This paper investigates the effect of idiosyncratic (firm-level) policy distortions on aggregate outcomes. Exploiting harmonized firm-level data for a number of countries, we show that there is substantial and systematic cross-country variation in the within-industry covariance between size and productivity. We develop a model in which heterogeneous firms face adjustment frictions (overhead labor and quasi-fixed capital) and distortions. The model can be readily calibrated so that variations i...
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作者：Roberts, Michael J.; Schlenker, Wolfram
作者单位：North Carolina State University; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We present a new framework to identify supply elasticities of storable commodities where past shocks are used as exogenous price shifters. In the agricultural context, past yield shocks change inventory levels and futures prices of agricultural commodities. We use our estimated elasticities to evaluate the impact of the 2009 Renewable Fuel Standard on commodity prices, quantities, and food consumers' surplus for the four basic staples: corn, rice, soybeans, and wheat. Prices increase 20 percen...
