Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Roberts, Michael J.; Schlenker, Wolfram
• 署名单位: North Carolina State University; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.6.2265
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 2265-2295
• 关键词: prices; increases; impacts; shocks; MODEL

摘要

We present a new framework to identify supply elasticities of storable commodities where past shocks are used as exogenous price shifters. In the agricultural context, past yield shocks change inventory levels and futures prices of agricultural commodities. We use our estimated elasticities to evaluate the impact of the 2009 Renewable Fuel Standard on commodity prices, quantities, and food consumers' surplus for the four basic staples: corn, rice, soybeans, and wheat. Prices increase 20 percent if one-third of commodities used to produce ethanol are recycled as feedstock, with a positively skewed 95 percent confidence interval that ranges from 14 to 35 percent.