-
作者：Charles, Kerwin Kofi; Hurst, Erik; Notowidigdo, Matthew J.
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; Northwestern University
摘要：We study how the recent housing boom and bust affected college enrollment during the 2000s. We exploit cross-city variation in local housing booms, which improved labor market opportunities for young men and women. We find that the boom lowered college enrollment, with effects concentrated at two-year colleges. The decline in enrollment during the boom was generally reversed during the bust; however, attainment remains persistently low for particular cohorts, suggesting that reduced educationa...
-
作者：Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yurii; Kumar, Saten
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We survey New Zealand firms and document novel facts about their macroeconomic beliefs. There is widespread dispersion in beliefs about past and future macroeconomic conditions, especially inflation. This dispersion in beliefs is consistent with firms' incentives to collect and process information. Using experimental methods, we find that firms update their beliefs in a Bayesian manner when presented with new information about the economy and that changes in their beliefs affect their decision...
-
作者：Arkolakis, Costas; Ramondo, Natalia; Rodriguez-Clare, Andres; Yeaple, Stephen
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：We develop a quantifiable general equilibrium model of trade and multinational production (MP) in which countries can specialize in innovation or production. Home market effects or comparative advantage leads some countries to specialize in innovation and relegate manufacturing operations to other countries via outward MP. Counterfactual analysis reveals that the reduction in the cost of MP or the integration of China into the world economy may hurt countries that are driven to specialize in p...
-
作者：Huber, Kilian
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Lending cuts by banks directly affect the firms borrowing from them, but also indirectly depress economic activity in the regions in which they operate. This paper moves beyond firm-level studies by estimating the effects of an exogenous lending cut by a large German bank on firms and counties. I construct an instrument for regional exposure to the lending cut based on a historic, postwar breakup of the bank. I present evidence that the lending cut affected firms independently of their banking...
-
作者：Fudenberg, Drew; Strack, Philipp; Strzalecki, Tomasz
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Harvard University
摘要：We model the joint distribution of choice probabilities and decision times in binary decisions as the solution to a problem of optimal sequential sampling, where the agent is uncertain of the utility of each action and pays a constant cost per unit time for gathering information. We show that choices are more likely to be correct when the agent chooses to decide quickly, provided the agent's prior beliefs are correct. This better matches the observed correlation between decision time and choic...
-
作者：Sommer, Kamila; Sullivan, Paul
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; American University
摘要：This paper studies the impact of the mortgage interest tax deduction on equilibrium house prices, rents, homeownership, and welfare. We build a dynamic model of the housing market that features a realistic progressive tax system in which owner-occupied housing services are tax-exempt and mortgage interest payments are tax-deductible. We simulate the effect of tax reform on the housing market. Eliminating the mortgage interest deduction causes house prices to decline, increases homeownership, d...
-
作者：Dubois, Pierre; Lasio, Laura
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; McGill University; Universite de Montreal; Universite de Montreal
摘要：We develop a structural model to investigate the effects of pharmaceutical price regulation on demand and on manufacturers' price-setting behavior in France. We estimate price-cost margins in a regulated market with price constraints and infer whether these constraints are binding, exploiting cost restrictions across drugs, which come from observing the same drugs in potentially price-constrained markets (France) and in markets where prices are unregulated (United States and Germany). Our coun...
-
作者：Roth, Alvin E.
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：Marketplaces are often small parts of large markets, and both markets and marketplaces come in many varieties. Market design seeks to understand what marketplaces must accomplish to enable different kinds of markets. Marketplaces can have varying degrees of success, and there can be marketplace failures. I'll discuss labor markets like the market for new economists, and also markets for new lawyers and doctors that have suffered from the unraveling of appointment dates to well before employmen...
-
作者：Fryer, Roland G., Jr.
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：I conducted a randomized field experiment in traditional public elementary schools in Houston, Texas designed to test the potential productivity benefits of teacher specialization. The average impact of encouraging schools to specialize their teachers on student achievement is -0.11 standard deviations per year on a combined index of math and reading test scores. I argue that the results are consistent with a model in which the benefits of specialization driven by sorting teachers into a subse...
-
作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Akcigit, Ufuk; Alp, Harun; Bloom, Nicholas; Kerr, William
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; University of Pennsylvania; Stanford University; Harvard University; Bank of Finland
摘要：We build a model offinn-level innovation, productivity growth, and reallocation featuring endogenous entry and exit. A new and central economic force is the selection between high- and low-type firms, which differ in terms of their innovative capacity. We estimate the parameters of the model using US Census microdata on firm-level output, R&D, and patenting. The model provides a good fit to the dynamics of firm entry and exit, output, and R&D. Taxing the continued operation of incumbents can l...
