How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yurii; Kumar, Saten
• 署名单位: University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20151299
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 2671-2713
• 关键词: inflation-expectations; sticky prices; INFORMATION; rates

摘要

We survey New Zealand firms and document novel facts about their macroeconomic beliefs. There is widespread dispersion in beliefs about past and future macroeconomic conditions, especially inflation. This dispersion in beliefs is consistent with firms' incentives to collect and process information. Using experimental methods, we find that firms update their beliefs in a Bayesian manner when presented with new information about the economy and that changes in their beliefs affect their decisions. Inflation is not generally perceived as being important to business decisions so firms devote few resources to collecting and processing information about inflation.