Disentangling the Effects of a Banking Crisis: Evidence from German Firms and Counties

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Huber, Kilian
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20161534
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 868-898
• 关键词: liquidity shocks evidence; Financial crisis; Lending channel; aggregate fluctuations; great-depression; emerging market; monetary-policy; level evidence; UNITED-STATES; spillovers

摘要

Lending cuts by banks directly affect the firms borrowing from them, but also indirectly depress economic activity in the regions in which they operate. This paper moves beyond firm-level studies by estimating the effects of an exogenous lending cut by a large German bank on firms and counties. I construct an instrument for regional exposure to the lending cut based on a historic, postwar breakup of the bank. I present evidence that the lending cut affected firms independently of their banking relationships, through lower aggregate demand and agglomeration spillovers in counties exposed to the lending cut. Output and employment remained persistently low even after bank lending had normalized. Innovation and productivity fell, consistent with the persistent effects.