Speed, Accuracy, and the Optimal Timing of Choices

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fudenberg, Drew; Strack, Philipp; Strzalecki, Tomasz
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Harvard University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20150742
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 3651-3684
• 关键词: drift-diffusion model; DECISION FIELD-THEORY; visual fixations; search; INFORMATION; BEHAVIOR; time

摘要

We model the joint distribution of choice probabilities and decision times in binary decisions as the solution to a problem of optimal sequential sampling, where the agent is uncertain of the utility of each action and pays a constant cost per unit time for gathering information. We show that choices are more likely to be correct when the agent chooses to decide quickly, provided the agent's prior beliefs are correct. This better matches the observed correlation between decision time and choice probability than does the classical drift-diffusion model (DDM), where the agent knows the utility difference between the choices.