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作者：Altonji, Joseph G.; Mansfield, Richard K.
作者单位：Yale University; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：We consider the classic problem of estimating group treatment effects when individuals sort based on observed and unobserved characteristics. Using a standard choice model, we show that controlling for group averages of observed individual characteristics potentially absorbs all the across-group variation in unobservable individual characteristics. We use this insight to bound the treatment effect variance of school systems and associated neighborhoods for various outcomes. Across multiple dat...
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作者：Beaudry, Paul; Green, David A.; Sand, Ben M.
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; York University - Canada
摘要：We propose and estimate a novel specification of labor demand which encompasses search frictions and the role of entrepreneurs in new firm creation. Using city-industry variation over four decades, we estimate the wage elasticity of employment demand to be close to -1 at the industry-city level and -0.3 at the city level. We argue that the difference between these estimates reflects the congestion externalities predicted by the search literature. Our estimates also indicate that entrepreneursh...
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作者：Eusepi, Stefano; Preston, Bruce
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of Melbourne
摘要：This paper proposes a theory of the fiscal foundations of inflation based on imperfect knowledge and learning. Because imperfect knowledge breaks Ricardian equivalence, the scale and composition of the public debt matter for inflation. High and moderate duration debt generates wealth effects on consumption demand that impairs the intertemporal substitution channel of monetary policy: aggressive monetary policy is required to anchor inflation expectations. Counterfactual experiments conducted i...
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作者：Spenkuch, Joerg L.; Montagnes, B. Pablo; Magleby, Daniel B.
作者单位：Northwestern University; Emory University; State University of New York (SUNY) System; Binghamton University, SUNY
摘要：In the US Senate, roll calls are held in alphabetical order. We document that senators early in the order are less likely to vote with the majority of their own party than those whose last name places them at the end of the alphabet. To speak to the mechanism behind this result, we develop a simple model of sequential voting, in which forward-looking senators rely on backward induction in order to free ride on their colleagues. Estimating our model structurally, we find that this form of strat...
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作者：Clemens, Michael A.; Lewis, Ethan G.; Postel, Hannah M.
作者单位：IZA Institute Labor Economics; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University
摘要：An important class of active labor market policy has received little impact evaluation: immigration barriers intended to raise wages and employment by shrinking labor supply. Theories of endogenous technical advance raise the possibility of limited or even perverse impact. We study a natural policy experiment: the exclusion of almost half a million Mexican bracero farm workers from the United States to improve farm labor market conditions. With novel labor market data we measure state-level ex...
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作者：Perri, Fabrizio; Quadrini, Vincenzo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Southern California
摘要：Macro developments leading up to the 2008 crisis displayed an unprecedented degree of international synchronization. Before the crisis, all G7 countries experienced credit growth, and, around the time of the Lehman bankruptcy, they all faced sharp and large contractions in both real and financial activity. Using a two-country model with financial frictions, we show that a global liquidity shortage induced by pessimistic self fulfilling expectations can quantitatively generate patterns like tho...
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作者：Persson, Petra; Rossin-Slater, Maya
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); Stanford University; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：This paper studies how in utero exposure to maternal stress from family ruptures affects later mental health. We find that prenatal exposure to the death of a maternal relative increases take-up of ADHD medications during childhood and anti-anxiety and depression medications in adulthood. Further, family ruptures during pregnancy depress birth outcomes and raise the risk of perinatal complications necessitating hospitalization. Our results suggest large welfare gains from preventing fetal stre...
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作者：de Quidt, Jonathan; Haushofer, Johannes; Roth, Christopher
作者单位：Stockholm University; Princeton University; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Oxford
摘要：We propose a technique for assessing robustness to demand effects of findings from experiments and surveys. The core idea is that by deliberately inducing demand in a structured way we can bound its influence. We present a model in which participants respond to their beliefs about the researcher's objectives. Bounds are obtained by manipulating those beliefs with demand treatments. We apply the method to 11 classic tasks, and estimate bounds averaging 0.13 standard deviations, suggesting that ...
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作者：Deb, Rahul; Pai, Mallesh M.; Said, Maher
作者单位：University of Toronto; Rice University; New York University
摘要：Motivated by the question of how one should evaluate professional election forecasters, we study a novel dynamic mechanism design problem without transfers. A principal who wishes to hire only high-quality forecasters is faced with an agent of unknown quality. The agent privately observes signals about a publicly observable future event, and may strategically misrepresent information to inflate the principal's perception of his quality. We show that the optimal deterministic mechanism is simpl...
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作者：Antecol, Heather; Bedard, Kelly; Stearns, Jenna
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Claremont Graduate University; Claremont McKenna College; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：Many skilled professional occupations are characterized by an early period of intensive skill accumulation and career establishment. Examples include law firm associates, surgical residents, and untenured faculty at research-intensive universities. High female exit rates are sometimes blamed on the inability of new mothers to survive the sustained negative productivity shock associated with childbearing and early childrearing in these environments. Gender-neutral family policies have been adop...
